Monday, April 30, 2018

MisterMJ MLB 4/30 ....Risk Adjusted Faves and Mad Scientists

Remember ...this is a work in progress. I am still trying to figure out just how I want to do this...but I still think I will figure it out.

I'm tracking the results...adjustments may need to be made. 

Play at your own risk...hopefully at some time in the future I can feel better about telling you to bet the system. Not quite yet. 

 The system itself may go in and out of cycle...and we might need to signal when to play it...and when to track it to wait for the next signal to play it. 

I know I have something here...I just have to play with it and figure things out. 

If I can figure it relates to all sports...which would make this effort very very worth while. 

One change I am implementing is a risk adjustment on the Favorites.  

Please note today's Favorite is a $20 wager. 
The goal is to not risk more than the $50 keep it real for a Fifty Dollar Bettor.

I can only document the picks in $10 I am forced to round things off. 

As an Boston is -230 so the wager amount is $20 which would lose $43.00 not including -110 lines.  I don't want the loss risk to be over $50 is what I am doing. 

I can see we might have some large we better adjust the risk.

MisterMJ Cycle System Tracking (All wagers are $50 except Large Favorites are risk adjusted in $10 increments so as not to risk more than $50)

KC at BOS 07:10 PM BOS -230  for $20   and Under 9.0

Overall Record 2-4-0 33.33% -$97.50 For a Fifty Dollar Bettor

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Saturday, April 28, 2018

MisterMJ MLB 4/28...Bucking Bronco's

Note: I will be camping this weekend in the beautiful north woods of Wisconsin....and it's kind of primitive internet. So,  Sunday I will most likely only post to Twitter. 

Two more MLB Cycle picks  qualify today...let's see if we can catch a cycle and start riding it. 

It's like breaking a horse....once you get on and get into a rhythm... you can go for a while. 

The hard part is figuring out how and when to jump on. 

For record keeping purpose I Can NOT play "Listed Pitchers" Only....but obviously for Favorites you might get screwed sometimes if you don't.

 The choice is yours....just know that I can NOT do it. I document my picks and once I enter them...I can't change them and they don't allow playing listed pitchers.

That's kind of the point of having a documented record. I use Covers "Pools" to document.

 I set up my own Office Pool there...and enter the picks. This way I get a realistic line that I can't manipulate or shade...and I can't change the picks once entered. You have to keep it real...or what's the point of this?

 Well other than to try to screw people...I guess that would be the point. I haven't spent 15 years doing this stuff to pretend I know how to handicap.

 If anyone would like a link to my record just ask...anytime. Go to and there is contact info there.

 Personally....I don't even trust most of the Pick Monitor sites. I've heard too many bad stories. I'll write about that one of these days.

Remember...I am tracking these...I might need to make an adjustment....I don't know if this is a finished product yet. 

Be careful until we see if I can "go into cycle" and ride it.

MisterMJ MLB  CYCLE System Tracking (All Wager amounts are assumed $50 for Tracking and Record keeping  Purpose)

ARI at WAS 04:05 PM ARI -137

DET at BAL 07:05 PM DET +135

Record 0-1-0 -$50 for a Fifty Dollar Bettor

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Friday, April 27, 2018

MisterMJ MLB 4/27...We Are "IN CYCLE" Tonight

Thanks for your patience...there has been a lot of work behind the scenes to get this up and running. 

Just bear with me as I work the bugs out and get this set up. I will also start getting this out much earlier in the day.

I am looking forward to this challenge to provide winning baseball picks the rest of this season. If this can work across ALL platforms...and ALL Sports. 

Fingers crossed on that one. 

This is really a ground breaking change in methods for me and I"m excited to start this.

I'm adding something to my handicapping  I've thought about for a long time.

 Identifying when Players Emotions + Situations+ Systems come into and go out of Cycle. 

We only play on teams IN CYCLE...when EVERYTHING lines up. I will constantly be searching for situations ...players...and teams IN CYCLE.

We will be Tracking Select Dogs, Faves and O/U's from a  system as they come into Cycle.

Our First Cycle pick is tonight.

Seattle and Cleveland are both IN CYCLE for the Under.

Play them if you wish...or watch me track them first. 

It's impossible to back test something like this and I have no history with this particular system. I wouldn't put it out unless I thought it had value but there are no guarantees.

MisterMJ MLB  CYCLE System Tracking (All Wager amounts are assumed $50 for Tracking and Record keeping  Purpose)

SEA at CLE 07:10 PM U 8.0

Record 0-0-0

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Thursday, April 26, 2018

MisterMJ NBA / MLB 4/26.. EMO's and Highly Functional Autistic With Statistics

First of all...I have some thoughts on the NBA Playoff game tonight.

Here is what I think...I like Boston +4.5 at Milwaukee..that is what I think. +4 Would be ok too. 

This is not a "system" play and I would not recommend that you wager a lot on it. But it's not "action" either. I don't do "action". 

I think it's worth playing...but keep it small.

 I keep documented records for all of my system plays but I don't have any systems for the NBA Playoffs. I just "see" something that I expect to have a winning advantage against the spread for this game.

Can't prove take it FWIW.
MLB 4/26

Nothing qualifies today.  And I am still getting some things set not quite at full speed yet.

Here is what I plan on doing for baseball.

I'm only going to use long term systems with a history for my recommended picks to play. 

But what is going to be different is that I'm also going to qualify all of the picks with my own proprietary filters. In effect...A Super System of Systems. 

It will be made up of Winning systems that also pass MY Filters. 

I will find them...process them..filter out the obviousand recommend the best picks to you. Only picks that are in the "sweet spot" of recent statistical and emotional performance. 

 Systems are great but they still often leave out recent performance and that is something that I think I can use to improve overall results of most systems. 

Whether it is SDQL...historical betting systems...ect..

That is what I do...I've been handicapping based on recent statistical performance for 15 years. I've learned some valuable insights in what to look for to beat the spread.

Some things are statistical set ups....some are based on the context of the matchup....and some are based on human emotional factors. 

I like the emo factors the can't find them anywhere or use an SDQL database to find them. Nobody really even talks about human emotion that much.

First you have to spend 15 years looking for them... EMO Factors...and quantifying them (when you can)....and observing them. 

lt's one of the missing ingredients in most handicapping...because nobody is willing to do something that hard to do. Seriously...who is going to do a 15 year experiment to improve their handicapping?

Sometimes it's good to be a highly functional autistic with statistics...I see things because I'm obsessive about them , I guess.  

Just sayin....kind of kidding there...kind of not. ;-)

Never been diagnosed ...but sometimes I go...hmmmm...maybe! 

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Wednesday, April 25, 2018

MisterMJ MLB 4/25....Better Stuff on The Way

Don't miss tomorrows post....I will be explaining in more detail what I intend to do for the rest of the MLB season....and beyond.

 Exciting stuff for I combine what I've learned building handicapping systems and filters over the last 15 years with other information now becoming available. 

Last night the Select Faves split 1-1-0 for a small loss.

I'm going to wrap this up today...I'm done with the Select Dogs and Select Faves. Final Records are below. 

All I wanted to do was show people that they can do some of this themselves, and I wanted to illustrate some of the basics for filtering plays ect. ..and it shows the way I think which can help you decide whether or not to follow me.

I will be doing more of this in the future playing around with systems and building filters at this blog.

Right now...I just don't have the time to keep doing these particular systems..especially doing it for free...which I don't mind, but I have to spend my time wisely.

I intend to spend my time in the future giving you Better Systems and Information.

The good news is that I"m going to start posting plays for you to follow that I hope will be of greater value.  This is where I want to spend my time.

 If I have a play today...which I might...I will post it on my Twitter Feed. Follow the links below.

Select Dogs Final Record

37-53-0 41.76% +$83.00 For a Fifty Dollar Bettor

Select Faves Final Record
4-2-0 66.67% +42.00 For a Fifty Dollar Bettor

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Tuesday, April 24, 2018

MisterMJ MLB Tues. 4/24 ...A Couple of Filtered Faves

Nothing qualified I didn't post here. 

You can always check my Twitter feed for an update.

Or go to  and check the embedded twitter feed there.

Today we have a couple more Select Faves. 

These are dog plays that were filtered OUT as NO PLAY....AND then playing on those FAVES that our filters find as PLAY ON. 

It sounds complicated but it's a's bad hitting vs. good hitting and making sure we aren't going against a top starting pitcher. 

It's a simple system of basic filters...and I'm trying to illustrate...sometimes simple is best...or at least...simple does sometimes work. 

MLB Select Faves 

8:15 PM STL -162

8:40 PM COL -148

Record 3-1-0 75.00% +$73.00 For a Fifty Dollar Bettor

Roughly looks like the Filters have gained us approximately +4.5 Units so far...versus just playing the Select Dogs without filters.

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Sunday, April 22, 2018

MisterMJ MLB 4/22 ....Two more Filtered Select Faves

All records assume $50 wagers for tracking and  record keeping purposes.

Yesterday another Select Fave won and the Dogs split for a small profit with a great walk off finish in Atlanta! 

Filtering the Dog system yesterday saved 2 units and gained another unit by turning it into a Select Fave by playing the other side. 

System explanation here :

Two more Faves qualify dogs made it through the filtering. 

MLB Filtered Select Faves

01:10 PM    DET -154

8:05 PM     LAD -185

Yesterday's Results 1-0-0 100% +$50 
Overall Record  2-0-0 100.00% +$100.00

MLB Filtered Select Dogs

Yesterday's Results 1-1-0 50.00% +$19.50

No Plays

Overall Results 37-53-0 41.11% +$83.00

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Saturday, April 21, 2018

MisterMJ MLB 4/21...Dogs and a Fave Today

Milwaukee won as an example of a Filtered Favorite yesterday.

 If you are interested in the method read yesterday's blog post. 

It should be noted that three of the dogs that I filtered out....won. As of right now the filtering has saved us about .2 units. So at least in the short run so harm no foul either way.

I'm going to keep things very simple today.

We have two Filtered Select Dogs and another Filtered Fave. Play them or watch me track them. The choice is yours. 

MLB Filtered Select Dogs
1:05 PM TOR +145
7:10 PM ATL +139

Overall Record  36-52-0   40.91%   +$63.50

MLB Filtered Select Faves

4:05 PM  PHI -173

Record 1-0-0 100% + $50

Friday, April 20, 2018

MisterMJ MLB 4/20 Tracking...This Is How Methods & Systems Are Built

No plays today for the Filtered Select Dog System Tracking. (Which means Dogs +128 to +180 are the "Select" part of the equation....and the Filtering means they can't be against a top 20 pitcher...AND they are filtered out for hitting performance. Season, L7 days and Home vs. Away)

Toronto , Miami,  San Fran and Washington were all filtered out as Select Dogs. (Toronto , Miami and San Fran filtered out for a poor hitting parameter....and Washington is going against top 20 pitcher they are a No Play) 

 So far, the filtering has saved about 3.5 units that would have been losses. Good to keep an eye on that.

This next part may get confusing....I am illustrating how to build handicapping systems. If you have an interest I think you can work your way through the basic idea. I wish somebody would have helped me with this stuff 15 years ago. 

 I had to figure it all out from scratch...with nothing to go on. In the long has helped me... to think "out of the box" and come up with ideas that nobody else uses.

Building a System of Filtered Faves
For somebody that loves to build systems and do my own's natural for me to take a look at these four Select Dogs that were filtered OUT as non plays....doesn't it now make sense to look at those match ups and see if we want to play any of the favorites? 

I mean ...after all....we are already saying we think there are reasons NOT to play the dogs that got filtered out.

This is how methods and systems are built. 

So....Milwaukee -153 does qualify as a Filtered Favorite. I'm not telling you to play it...I'm showing you how I came up with it...and I'm going to track the record. Let's see how they do.

Milwaukee is playing a Select Dog (Miami) that got filtered OUT as a non play...(That gets our interest....right?)

And they have hitting parameters that are in the top 10 of the league. (Last 7 and Home) So in effect we want to play ON Favorites that are in the top 10 of hitting parameters vs a team in the bottom 10 of hitting parameters. Jim Barnes says this is more important than pitching. Maybe ...maybe not...but playing around with it like this will teach us things. 

Now keep in mind...this is a very raw's mainly for illustration purposes...but it can also be played as a down and dirty DIY type of handicapping that "might" very well show some profit over the whole season. It might also take some tweaking...mostly I'm trying to give you some idea of the process. 

Anyway...I hope somebody finds this interesting...or useful...or at least gives some insight into following me in the future. Some of the things that I do are based on things like this. 
Today's MLB Filtered Select Dogs

Nothing qualifies today.

Overall Record 36-52-0 40.91% +$63.50 For a Fifty Dollar Bettor

Yesterday's Results 0-1-0 0.00% -$50.00 
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Thursday, April 19, 2018

MisterMJ MLB 4/19 ....Filters...and a Filtered Afternoon Play

I am tracking "Select" MLB Dogs in April here, and on Twitter to provide a service to readers. 

You can play me track them...whatever. In the long run these MLB dogs have shown value in April.  Not every season, but many. 

It's a good way to start the new season while we wait for things to settle my opinion anyway.

Anyone can do this and it can be fun to do for baseball betting fans.

For the rest of April I am filtering the Select Dogs (+128 to +180 is what the "Select" means).

I'm filtering out playing against the top 20 pitchers. Most pitchers have a few games under their belt now...and every season there are some pitchers that are just "ON" why go against somebody that is having one of those God like years when he just has nasty stuff?

The other filter is related to hitting. Jim Barnes swears hitting is more important than pitching. At least in some ways I think he is I just said ...there is no sense in going against the top 20 pitchers...of which some of those guys will be nearly un-hittable this season and have a career year. I filtered OUT : Toronto , Miami and San Fran.

This leaves us with just one pick again today....and it's Seattle.

Yesterday's filtering saved us close to a half a unit....I will keep an eye on the teams I filter out and make sure that it seems to be working.

I will do these filtered plays for the rest of April....then I will switch to a different system and provide plays for the rest of the season.

Yesterday's Results 0-1-0 0.00% -$50.00

Today's Filtered MLB Early Season Select Dog Trackers

3:40 PM SEA +163

Overall Record 36-51-0 41.38% +$113.50

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Wednesday, April 18, 2018

MisterMJ MLB 4/18...Adding MLB Filters

For the rest of April I am going to filter out some teams based on hitting and pitching. We have enough stats to go on now...I don't think it makes sense to completely ignore current performance once we have some stats to go on. 

I showed you how to do you can do it yourself if you don't want the filtered plays. You can read the explanation at the link on how and why to play Select Early Season MLB Dogs I filtered OUT... Cin , San Fran and Seattle are NOT PLAYs...based on Filtering for pitching/hitting. 

That leaves us with just one play tonight. 

If you have questions I will help you. Go to and there is contact information there. I will answer your questions. 

Do what you my them how you want to...or follow my filtering.

It's up to you...I think it makes sense to filter them down now. 

Yesterday's Results 2-6-0 25.00% -$163.50 For a Fifty Dollar Bettor

 Today's MLB Filtered Select Early Season Dog Trackers

10:10 PM SD +155

Overall Record  36-50-0  41.86% +$163.50 For a Fifty Dollar Bettor

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Tuesday, April 17, 2018

MisterMJ MLB Tues. 4/17....Bryce Harper Magic !

Last night we had  some magic happen with the's very enjoyable to play a system like this and have something like that happen with a +160 Dog to ensure a winning night.

Harper hits broken-bat HR, helps Nats rally past Mets 8-6
The Associated Press
11h ago

NEW YORK (AP) The shear power of Bryce Harper was startling. The late comeback by the Washington Nationals? Yep, that was shocking, too.

Harper hit an eye-popping, broken-bat homer early, then grounded a key single during a six-run surge in the eighth inning that sent the Nationals past the New York Mets 8-6 Monday night.

''Barreled it pretty good,'' Harper said. ''It just broke and kept going.''

Today's MLB Early Season Select Dog Tracking
Tues. 4/17

6:37 PM KC +175

7:05 PM COL +130

7:10 PM MIN +180

7:40 PM CIN +137

10:05 PM CHW +155

10:07 PM BOS +143

10:10 PM SD +172

10:10 PM SEA +157

Overall Record 34-44-0 43.59% +$327.00 For a Fifty Dollar Bettor

Yesterday's Result 1-1-0 50% +$30.00 For a Fifty Dollar Bettor.

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Monday, April 16, 2018

MisterMJ MLB Mon. 4/16

We had a couple of games PPD yesterday and one loss. 

Internet down today...big time...running late here. 

Yesterday 0-1-0 0.00% -$50.00 For a Fifty Dollar Bettor

Today's MLB Early Season Select Dog Trackers
07:10 PM WAS +160

07:10 PM TEX +165

Overall  33-43-0 43.42% +$297.00 For a Fifty Dollar Bettor

Sunday, April 15, 2018

MisterMJ MLB 4/15...."Priming the Pump"

Let's keep it real for the MLB Select Dogs...the Downs come with the Ups. 
Please read my little story below called "Priming the Pump" as it relates to this.

MLB Select Dogs  still up nearly +7 Units  / $50 = 1 Unit For Tracking Purpose

Yesterday's MLB Results Early Season Dog Trackers
1-5-0 16.67% -$172 50 For a Fifty Dollar Bettor

Overall 33-42-0 44.00% +$347.00 For a Fifty Dollar Bettor  
Today's MLB Early Season Select Dog Tracking
Sun. 4/15

01:10 PM CIN +153

02:20 PM ATL +160

07:10 PM DET +135
Priming the Pump

The term "Priming the Pump" comes from the old fashioned hand water pumps in which you had to pour water into a suction valve in the pump before you could get it to pump water out of the well. 

You had to "Prime" it order to get the action you in pumping water. 

"Priming the Pump" is a very fascinating term as it relates to human psychology in my opinion, and it relates directly to sports bettors and the "Greed" receptors in our brains.

Let me tell you a personal story to illustrate my point.

A few years ago at an Indian Casino in Florida I found myself with my girlfriend and a small group of people. As we had never been there before it was custom for new customers to sign up and get the casino's rewards card which gave the benefit of some free tokens to play the slot machines with ect. 

Now yes...this is an example of "Priming the Pump" was a marketing strategy by the casino to get new players to start playing the slots. Whatever money was lost by the casino in doing this was quickly replaced by new profits from the new customers that were "hooked" so to speak into playing.

I think we all get this to some extent...we know what they are big deal.

Now here is where it gets interesting....

I can't prove it...but what happened next illustrates my point whether it was actually a type of conspiracy by the casino or not. It could have been a random coincidence...doesn't even matter.

I played my tokens on one of the dedicated slot machines that you had to play them on...and Bam! ...I won $400 Dollars within a few pulls. Wow...right? That's the start of a good night. 

Except not me...I was done. That's how I am and I realize I am one of the few that can do that. But I got extreme enjoyment by cashing out...buying drinks for everyone all night and having the best steak in the restaurant later that evening. 

I had fun with it...and manufactured a good memory for everyone in my group.

A small unexpected windfall turned into a great evening and some stories to tell. Not bad for a sleepy Thursday night with nothing else to do.

My girlfriend had exactly the same thing happen to her...on the same machine no less. A couple of pulls and Bam! $400 Dollar winner....Woo Hoo! Everyone was laughing and having a good ol time.

I'm not sure but I suspect some of the others ended up spending MORE than they would have that night gambling BECAUSE of how the night started out with two people winning $400 Bucks.

That's "Priming the Pump"...and the casino knows full well that in the long run they will recoup more money back than they will lose...even handing out $400 Bucks like that...because hardly anyone is like me just putting it in my pocket.

The story of my girlfriend is the most interesting. After winning that $400 she got a glean in her eye that is hard to explain but she was gone the rest of the night. She wanted to turn that $400 into a few thousand. She couldn't get it out of her head to win one of the slots' progressive pots because she had a free shot at it. 

Of course she ended up losing the whole $400 AND then couldn't help herself and lost a couple hundred more of her own money. She ended up in a sour mood...the experience wasn't even fun for her. If I brought it up later...she never wanted to talk about it. It was a BAD experience. 

She couldn't handle her emotions and what "Priming the Pump" did to her. It got her into an excited state...she became greedy and ended up losing more than she had intended on spending in the first place.

When you have a winning run...or win some large's the same thing for you. When you fail to have a plan or use money management...this is what is happening to you. 

It's not any's not enjoyable....and you will never win in the long run without controlling your emotions and having a plan. 

If I can do anything...please start thinking about these things and lets see if I can start showing you a better way to approach all of this.


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Saturday, April 14, 2018

MisterMJ MLB Sat. 4/14 ...Why Do You Gamble? Seriously...Why?

Holy smokes...a lot of dogs qualify again today. The MLB Select Dogs are included below.

By the way, just because I am using $50 wagers for tracking purposes DOES NOT mean YOU should be betting $50 Dollars on each of these. How could I know how much you should wager?

It depends on the size of your bankroll. I'm just using $50 to track the record. Some people don't get this. 

 How much YOU wager depends on your bankroll and your risk tolerance and what you are trying to accomplish.  

Why do you gamble? Seriously...Why?

Do you even know? Do you have any plan at all? Is it "honestly" working?

I will be talking more about these things in the future.

My goal is to make it more profitable and more enjoyable for you. 

 You have to change your mindset. Much of what you believe is just not true or counter-productive in my opinion. 

Yesterday's Results MLB Early Season Select Dog Tracking 1-3-0 25.00% -$70.50 For a Fifty Dollar Bettor

Today's MLB Early Season Select Dog Trackers 
Sat 4/14

01:05 PM COL +180

01:05 PM BAL +142

02:10 PM CHW +158

02:20 PM ATL +168

07:10 PM MIA +149

07:15 PM KC +152

09:10 PM ARI +155

Overall Record 32-37-0 46.38% +$519.50 For a Fifty Dollar Bettor

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Friday, April 13, 2018

MisterMJ MLB Fri. 4/13 ...Things Nobody Talks About

The MLB Early Season Dogs are on a nice five day run. 

Why are you paying for picks again?

 Anyone can do this... and doing it yourself somehow makes it all more enjoyable even if it is not your idea.

Nobody talks about this.

Last Five Days...Assuming $50 Dollar Wagers for Tracking
04/12/2018 2-2-0 50.00% +71.00
04/11/2018 3-3-0 50.00% +71.50
04/10/2018 3-3-0 50.00% +59.50
04/09/2018 2-2-0 50.00% +48.50
04/08/2018 5-3-0 62.50% +$230.00 

 Today's picks are included just below.

Today's MLB Select Dog Trackers
Friday 4/13

06:40 PM CIN +135

07:05 PM COL +159

07:10 PM DET +161

08:15 PM KC +136

Overall Record 31-34-0 47.69% +$590.00  For a Fifty Dollar Bettor

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