Sunday, September 16, 2018

MisterMJ NFL Sept. 16 Week # 2

I have three games that I'm looking at this week.

 If anyone would like to subscribe the 29.99 deal is done. Contact me for more information.


Play these at your own risk...use the information as you see fit.

These are NOT system picks. You have paid me to provide system picks and the systems have not started yet.

Anyway...here is my thinking this week. I was 2-2 last week.

I think Minnesota is just better than Green Bay right now. Great defense and a very solid offense. Green Bay will be forced into a somewhat predictable game plan and you can't blame Rodgers if he gets a little skittish from what should be another great pass rush coming at him this week. In fact...as a Packer fan...I just hope he gets out of this game without making his knee worse...or a collarbone broken by the Vikes last season. Just too much love for the Packers here...they aren't that good....yet.


MIN at GB  01:00 PM  Pick MIN -2.5
----
There is a SDQL for this next game that I find worth considering. 
 Since 2015, teams which are opening the season with two straight road game are 0-12 ATS in the second of those games. Active on Kansas City, Houston and Seattle. SDQL TEXT: week=2 and A and p:A and season>=2015

Add in the fact that KC has a very talented but still young and inexperienced QB coming off a nice win...but going into Pittsburgh is a different animal. Pittsburgh is coming off a game that probably pissed them off...I just like this set up.

KC at PIT  01:00 PM  Pick PIT -4.0

Monday Night...maybe Chicago is a pick too....I will email it out if things still check out on Monday. I like the Chicago defense at home on a Monday night here...Seattle might be living on past glory a little too much too. 
Too much respect for Seattle...too little for Chicago that is on an upswing from their recent past. Betting on upside surprise over Seattle not the same team  as they used to be.

Good luck.
MJ


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Saturday, August 11, 2018

MisterMJ Last Time Offer....PayPal Fix

The PayPal link did not work yesterday.

If you still want the offer I will honor it today.

For my past subscribers only...this year only...today only.

All Football and Basketball Available at this link for only $29.99 Total For Both Packages 



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Thanks, 
MJ

Friday, August 10, 2018

MisterMJ...One Day Deal...Last Time Offer...Thank You! The End

MisterMJ...One Day Deal...Last Time Offer...Thank You! The End

This is one hell of a deal...as a courtesy, only available today to my past subscribers. 

Thank you for all of your past support through flat times and those spectacular +70% runs we have once in a while.

I have always worked hard and in good faith to provide the best I could...but I'm a little sick of the business and I'm sick of working so hard at it. Sick of the daily emails and or tracking all of the systems. And I'm sick of people not appreciating the long term value provided.

In the future ...I'm still going to handicap and write articles on my blog and mostly Twitter. Plenty of it will be some free picks from past systems as promised.

People keep asking...give me the picks that I bet on. Ok...I guess I'm listening. They don't even want all my system picks.

So...in the future...I'm going to run things the way I want to and keep it fun and interesting for me. 

I will only be selling occasional high value type picks...one at a time....for bigger money.

One thing I've found out...I work way too cheap. People don't want cheap or free. They don't respect it.
Not anymore....I will sell only very high value picks in the future ...only from hot systems and for the kind of money they deserve. 

I will not blindly pass on all of the system picks like I have in the past. 

For my past subscribers only...this year only...today only.

All Football and Basketball Available at this link for only $29.99 Total For Both Packages 


Everyone else pays for each pick going forward. I won't offer this again.

 Less is more..The End.

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Thanks, 
MJ

Saturday, May 19, 2018

Preakness Analysis 5/19

By popular demand ...Preakness analysis by Mark Belling

http://www.belling.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Preakness_Belling_2018.pdf


Mark is a co-owner, fan, and has a reputation for insightful analysis. It's free...use at your own risk...I trust it as a good faith analysis on his part...and so do many others over the years.


Wednesday, May 16, 2018

MisterMJ MLB 5/16...Going to Twitter

I am tracking a couple of Cycle plays today...and I have a qualified SDQL pick. All posted on Twitter.

I still don't know where this is all going...but I know that it is going some where. ;-)

I have offers for partnerships...I have various ideas of my own...I'm going to keep playing around with baseball until I get it figured out. 

I definitely want to keep things Free or as close to free as possible...and yet provide value to sports bettors.

I do know....that for now anyway...I am going to post my tracking and  picks exclusively on Twitter to save some time and be more efficient. 

I will still post articles and things to the blog occasionally but I will not use the blog to deliver picks. 

Maybe in the Fall I will go back to blog posts for football since it's a once a week type of thing.

Unless I get a huge backlash from people...I would prefer to use Twitter for releasing picks.

So...follow me on Twitter...or I have a Twitter feed that updates at mistermj.com

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Saturday, May 12, 2018

MisterMJ MLB 5/12...Qualified MLB Picks...Methods to Madness

Let's get some things straight here...so everybody knows where I am coming from. Today's pick and reasoning are included below.

Let me explain the Method to My Madness...so to speak.

I am trying to find a method for baseball that I enjoy handicapping...sharing....and has value to you...the reader or follower. I like systems and I like something that I can do every day...or most days. 

I do it because I thoroughly enjoy the challenge of handicapping. I just do.

Long story short...in some ways...baseball has always been a challenge to me. It doesn't fit my style the best maybe...I like the statistics and volume of games in basketball the best. 

The problem with baseball....for me...is it seems to have too many variables that I can not easily define...as I feel I can in the game of basketball for instance. 

So...I can keep fooling around trying to build my own systems....or I can leverage something else and make it my own system or method so to speak.

I think I've come to the point where I just need to try something else...something I've thought about for a long time, but resisted. I might still work on the Cycle thing but it needs work.

For the first time I am using SDQL queries as a base for daily handicapping. I will get my ideas from there and then "Qualify" them using my own filters. So far so good. I am tracking the record and documenting the picks as I always do at Covers.com

MisterMJ Qualified MLB (SDQL based with my own added filters to qualify)

OAK at NYY 01:05 PM U 9.0  $50

Overall Record 3-0-0 100.00% +167.50 For a Fifty Dollar Bettor

This query is hitting 62.3% on the Under with a sample size close to 150.

What makes it a pick for me is that I think I see an erosion in hitting by both teams...which if it carries through today could also help the Under. In other words...it's Qualified. Good luck to us.

SDQL :
http://www.killersports.com/mlb/query?su=1&ou=1&sdql=HF+and+season+%3E+2011+and+4+%3C++month+%3C+9+and+line+%3C+-171++and+STDSWHIP+%3C+.95&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

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Wednesday, May 9, 2018

MisterMJ MLB 5/9...Fade Toronto tonight

Not much time today. Oakland lost last night.

MLB Cycle System

Fade Toronto...play on Seattle +112  $50

I will update the records next time.


Tuesday, May 8, 2018

MisterMJ MLB Cycle 5/8


MisterMJ MLB Cycle

HOU at OAK 10:05 PM OAK +132  $50

Overall Record 6-12-0 33.33% -286.50



Monday, May 7, 2018

MisterMJ MLB 5/7...Marlins vs Out of Cycle Cubs

Nice hit yesterday...another big dog today...looks to be "in cycle".

Great value here in my opinion. It's a nice set up.

Also...Garcia for the Marlins is currently pitching in very very good form.

Cubs are tired...24 innings last 2 games...extra innings last night...used 7 pitchers out of the bullpen...a couple of rain delays and ended up being a late nighter too. Not the kind of set up for the Cubs to easily get it back together. 

The sides in the Cycle system are doing fine...it's been the O/U's that are a problem. 

MLB Cycle System

MIA at CHC 08:05 PM MIA +210  $50


Yesterday 1-0-0 100.00% +$92.00 For a Fifty Dollar Bettor
Overall Record 6-11-0 35.29% -$236.50
(Sides Only) 6-7 -$16.50 

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Sunday, May 6, 2018

MisterMJ MLB 5/6

Still waiting for things to heat up...or for me to find better spots. Hard to tell yet. Sides are only down a little over 2 units. 

MLB Cycle System

HOU at ARI 04:10 PM      ARI +184  $50

Overall Record 5-11-0   31.25%   -$328.50 For a Fifty Dollar Bettor 
Yesterday 1-2-0 33.33% - $43.50

Saturday, May 5, 2018

MisterMJ MLB 5/5

MLB Cycle System...O/U are 0-4...sides still look ok. Split yesterday for small gain. 

PHI at WAS 04:05 PM  PHI +132  $50

BOS at TEX 08:05 PM  TEX +133   $50

HOU at ARI 08:10 PM  HOU -119  $50

Overall Record 4-9-0 30.77%  -$285.00 For a Fifty Dollar Bettor

Friday, May 4, 2018

MisterMJ MLB 5/4

Two Cycle picks tonight...and I will stick my neck out and say how much I like them.

The record isn't very good but remember that the O/U's are 0-4 so a good chunk of the losses are from that. 

I'm entering this cycle in a little different spot which may give us better results. 

This is tricky until I get the feel of it. They look good....sooner or later when something look goods to me it's going to come through.

MLB Cycle System 

COL at NYM 07:10 PM COL +107  $50

DET at KC 08:15 PM DET +115   $50

3-8-0 27.27% -$288.50 For a Fifty Dollar Bettor

Tuesday, May 1, 2018

MisterMJ MLB 5/1...Help Me Stalk Philadelphia

Yesterday 1-1-0 50.00% -$35.00

Cycle O/U's are 0-4 and I"m not feeling those at all right now. Not giving up on them, but I'm going to concentrate more on sides for now.

Still trying to get in line with the cycles here....and stalking Philadelphia for an upcoming cycle. 

If anyone comes across info or an article on the Philadelphia Phillies that outlines problems with pitching/hitting or any negative issues... please reply to my Twitter post with the link. 

Baseball is more fun when it's interactive and when we can work together. And it might help me front run the next cycle which might increase our units.

MisterMJ Cycle System Tracking (All wagers are $50 except Large Favorites are risk adjusted in $10 increments so as not to risk more than $50)

KC at BOS 07:10 PM
BOS -290   $20

MIL at CIN 07:10 PM
CIN +112  $50

COL at CHC 08:05 PM
CHC -160  $30

Overall Record 3-5-0 37.50% -$132.50 For a Fifty Dollar Bettor

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Monday, April 30, 2018

MisterMJ MLB 4/30 ....Risk Adjusted Faves and Mad Scientists



Remember ...this is a work in progress. I am still trying to figure out just how I want to do this...but I still think I will figure it out.

I'm tracking the results...adjustments may need to be made. 

Play at your own risk...hopefully at some time in the future I can feel better about telling you to bet the system. Not quite yet. 

 The system itself may go in and out of cycle...and we might need to signal when to play it...and when to track it to wait for the next signal to play it. 

I know I have something here...I just have to play with it and figure things out. 

If I can figure it out...it relates to all sports...which would make this effort very very worth while. 

One change I am implementing is a risk adjustment on the Favorites.  

Please note today's Favorite is a $20 wager. 
The goal is to not risk more than the $50 wagers...to keep it real for a Fifty Dollar Bettor.

I can only document the picks in $10 increments...so I am forced to round things off. 

As an example...today Boston is -230 so the wager amount is $20 which would lose $43.00 not including -110 lines.  I don't want the loss risk to be over $50 is what I am doing. 

I can see we might have some large favorites...so we better adjust the risk.


MisterMJ Cycle System Tracking (All wagers are $50 except Large Favorites are risk adjusted in $10 increments so as not to risk more than $50)

KC at BOS 07:10 PM BOS -230  for $20   and Under 9.0

Overall Record 2-4-0 33.33% -$97.50 For a Fifty Dollar Bettor

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Saturday, April 28, 2018

MisterMJ MLB 4/28...Bucking Bronco's

Note: I will be camping this weekend in the beautiful north woods of Wisconsin....and it's kind of primitive there...limited internet. So,  Sunday I will most likely only post to Twitter. 

Two more MLB Cycle picks  qualify today...let's see if we can catch a cycle and start riding it. 

It's like breaking a horse....once you get on and get into a rhythm... you can go for a while. 

The hard part is figuring out how and when to jump on. 

For record keeping purpose I Can NOT play "Listed Pitchers" Only....but obviously for Favorites you might get screwed sometimes if you don't.

 The choice is yours....just know that I can NOT do it. I document my picks and once I enter them...I can't change them and they don't allow playing listed pitchers.

That's kind of the point of having a documented record. I use Covers "Pools" to document.

 I set up my own Office Pool there...and enter the picks. This way I get a realistic line that I can't manipulate or shade...and I can't change the picks once entered. You have to keep it real...or what's the point of this?

 Well other than to try to screw people...I guess that would be the point. I haven't spent 15 years doing this stuff to pretend I know how to handicap.

 If anyone would like a link to my record just ask...anytime. Go to mistermj.com and there is contact info there.

 Personally....I don't even trust most of the Pick Monitor sites. I've heard too many bad stories. I'll write about that one of these days.

Remember...I am tracking these...I might need to make an adjustment....I don't know if this is a finished product yet. 

Be careful until we see if I can "go into cycle" and ride it.


MisterMJ MLB  CYCLE System Tracking (All Wager amounts are assumed $50 for Tracking and Record keeping  Purpose)

ARI at WAS 04:05 PM ARI -137

DET at BAL 07:05 PM DET +135

Record 0-1-0 -$50 for a Fifty Dollar Bettor

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Friday, April 27, 2018

MisterMJ MLB 4/27...We Are "IN CYCLE" Tonight



Thanks for your patience...there has been a lot of work behind the scenes to get this up and running. 

Just bear with me as I work the bugs out and get this set up. I will also start getting this out much earlier in the day.

I am looking forward to this challenge to provide winning baseball picks the rest of this season. If this works...it can work across ALL platforms...and ALL Sports. 

Fingers crossed on that one. 

This is really a ground breaking change in methods for me and I"m excited to start this.

I'm adding something to my handicapping  I've thought about for a long time.

 Identifying when Players Emotions + Situations+ Systems come into and go out of Cycle. 

We only play on teams IN CYCLE...when EVERYTHING lines up. I will constantly be searching for situations ...players...and teams IN CYCLE.

We will be Tracking Select Dogs, Faves and O/U's from a  system as they come into Cycle.

Our First Cycle pick is tonight.

Seattle and Cleveland are both IN CYCLE for the Under.

Play them if you wish...or watch me track them first. 

It's impossible to back test something like this and I have no history with this particular system. I wouldn't put it out unless I thought it had value but there are no guarantees.

MisterMJ MLB  CYCLE System Tracking (All Wager amounts are assumed $50 for Tracking and Record keeping  Purpose)

SEA at CLE 07:10 PM U 8.0

Record 0-0-0

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Thursday, April 26, 2018

MisterMJ NBA / MLB 4/26.. EMO's and Highly Functional Autistic With Statistics

First of all...I have some thoughts on the NBA Playoff game tonight.

Here is what I think...I like Boston +4.5 at Milwaukee..that is what I think. +4 Would be ok too. 

This is not a "system" play and I would not recommend that you wager a lot on it. But it's not "action" either. I don't do "action". 

I think it's worth playing...but keep it small.

 I keep documented records for all of my system plays but I don't have any systems for the NBA Playoffs. I just "see" something that I expect to have a winning advantage against the spread for this game.

Can't prove it...so take it FWIW.
---
MLB 4/26

Nothing qualifies today.  And I am still getting some things set up...so not quite at full speed yet.

Here is what I plan on doing for baseball.

I'm only going to use long term systems with a history for my recommended picks to play. 

But what is going to be different is that I'm also going to qualify all of the picks with my own proprietary filters. In effect...A Super System of Systems. 

It will be made up of Winning systems that also pass MY Filters. 

I will find them...process them..filter out the obviousand recommend the best picks to you. Only picks that are in the "sweet spot" of recent statistical and emotional performance. 

 Systems are great but they still often leave out recent performance and that is something that I think I can use to improve overall results of most systems. 

Whether it is SDQL...historical betting systems...ect..

That is what I do...I've been handicapping based on recent statistical performance for 15 years. I've learned some valuable insights in what to look for to beat the spread.

Some things are statistical set ups....some are based on the context of the matchup....and some are based on human emotional factors. 

I like the emo factors the best....you can't find them anywhere or use an SDQL database to find them. Nobody really even talks about human emotion that much.

First you have to spend 15 years looking for them... EMO Factors...and quantifying them (when you can)....and observing them. 

lt's one of the missing ingredients in most handicapping...because nobody is willing to do something that hard to do. Seriously...who is going to do a 15 year experiment to improve their handicapping?

Sometimes it's good to be a highly functional autistic with statistics...I see things because I'm obsessive about them , I guess.  

Just sayin....kind of kidding there...kind of not. ;-)

Never been diagnosed ...but sometimes I go...hmmmm...maybe! 

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Wednesday, April 25, 2018

MisterMJ MLB 4/25....Better Stuff on The Way

Don't miss tomorrows post....I will be explaining in more detail what I intend to do for the rest of the MLB season....and beyond.

 Exciting stuff for me...as I combine what I've learned building handicapping systems and filters over the last 15 years with other information now becoming available. 

Last night the Select Faves split 1-1-0 for a small loss.

I'm going to wrap this up today...I'm done with the Select Dogs and Select Faves. Final Records are below. 

All I wanted to do was show people that they can do some of this themselves, and I wanted to illustrate some of the basics for filtering plays ect. ..and it shows the way I think which can help you decide whether or not to follow me.

I will be doing more of this in the future playing around with systems and building filters at this blog.

Right now...I just don't have the time to keep doing these particular systems..especially doing it for free...which I don't mind, but I have to spend my time wisely.

I intend to spend my time in the future giving you Better Systems and Information.

The good news is that I"m going to start posting plays for you to follow that I hope will be of greater value.  This is where I want to spend my time.

 If I have a play today...which I might...I will post it on my Twitter Feed. Follow the links below.

Select Dogs Final Record

37-53-0 41.76% +$83.00 For a Fifty Dollar Bettor

Select Faves Final Record
4-2-0 66.67% +42.00 For a Fifty Dollar Bettor

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Tuesday, April 24, 2018

MisterMJ MLB Tues. 4/24 ...A Couple of Filtered Faves

Nothing qualified yesterday...so I didn't post here. 

You can always check my Twitter feed for an update. https://twitter.com/mistermjdotcom

Or go to mistermj.com  and check the embedded twitter feed there.


Today we have a couple more Select Faves. 

These are dog plays that were filtered OUT as NO PLAY....AND then playing on those FAVES that our filters find as PLAY ON. 

It sounds complicated but it's not...in a nutshell...it's bad hitting vs. good hitting and making sure we aren't going against a top starting pitcher. 

It's a simple system of basic filters...and I'm trying to illustrate...sometimes simple is best...or at least...simple does sometimes work. 


MLB Select Faves 

8:15 PM STL -162

8:40 PM COL -148

Record 3-1-0 75.00% +$73.00 For a Fifty Dollar Bettor

Roughly speaking....it looks like the Filters have gained us approximately +4.5 Units so far...versus just playing the Select Dogs without filters.

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Sunday, April 22, 2018

MisterMJ MLB 4/22 ....Two more Filtered Select Faves

All records assume $50 wagers for tracking and  record keeping purposes.

Yesterday another Select Fave won and the Dogs split for a small profit with a great walk off finish in Atlanta! 

Filtering the Dog system yesterday saved 2 units and gained another unit by turning it into a Select Fave by playing the other side. 

System explanation here : http://mistermj.blogspot.com/2018/04/mistermj-mlb-420-trackingthis-is-how.html

Two more Faves qualify today....no dogs made it through the filtering. 

MLB Filtered Select Faves

01:10 PM    DET -154

8:05 PM     LAD -185

Yesterday's Results 1-0-0 100% +$50 
Overall Record  2-0-0 100.00% +$100.00

MLB Filtered Select Dogs

Yesterday's Results 1-1-0 50.00% +$19.50

No Plays

Overall Results 37-53-0 41.11% +$83.00

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Saturday, April 21, 2018

MisterMJ MLB 4/21...Dogs and a Fave Today

Milwaukee won as an example of a Filtered Favorite yesterday.

 If you are interested in the method read yesterday's blog post. 

It should be noted that three of the dogs that I filtered out....won. As of right now the filtering has saved us about .2 units. So at least in the short run so far...no harm no foul either way.

I'm going to keep things very simple today.

We have two Filtered Select Dogs and another Filtered Fave. Play them or watch me track them. The choice is yours. 

MLB Filtered Select Dogs
1:05 PM TOR +145
7:10 PM ATL +139

Overall Record  36-52-0   40.91%   +$63.50

MLB Filtered Select Faves

4:05 PM  PHI -173

Record 1-0-0 100% + $50


Friday, April 20, 2018

MisterMJ MLB 4/20 Tracking...This Is How Methods & Systems Are Built

No plays today for the Filtered Select Dog System Tracking. (Which means Dogs +128 to +180 are the "Select" part of the equation....and the Filtering means they can't be against a top 20 pitcher...AND they are filtered out for hitting performance. Season, L7 days and Home vs. Away)

Toronto , Miami,  San Fran and Washington were all filtered out as Select Dogs. (Toronto , Miami and San Fran filtered out for a poor hitting parameter....and Washington is going against top 20 pitcher Kershaw...so they are a No Play) 

 So far, the filtering has saved about 3.5 units that would have been losses. Good to keep an eye on that.

This next part may get confusing....I am illustrating how to build handicapping systems. If you have an interest I think you can work your way through the basic idea. I wish somebody would have helped me with this stuff 15 years ago. 

 I had to figure it all out from scratch...with nothing to go on. In the long run..it has helped me... to think "out of the box" and come up with ideas that nobody else uses.

Building a System of Filtered Faves
For somebody that loves to build systems and do my own handicapping...it's natural for me to take a look at these four Select Dogs that were filtered OUT as non plays....doesn't it now make sense to look at those match ups and see if we want to play any of the favorites? 

I mean ...after all....we are already saying we think there are reasons NOT to play the dogs that got filtered out.

This is how methods and systems are built. 

So....Milwaukee -153 does qualify as a Filtered Favorite. I'm not telling you to play it...I'm showing you how I came up with it...and I'm going to track the record. Let's see how they do.

Milwaukee is playing a Select Dog (Miami) that got filtered OUT as a non play...(That gets our interest....right?)

And they have hitting parameters that are in the top 10 of the league. (Last 7 and Home) So in effect we want to play ON Favorites that are in the top 10 of hitting parameters vs a team in the bottom 10 of hitting parameters. Jim Barnes says this is more important than pitching. Maybe ...maybe not...but playing around with it like this will teach us things. 

Now keep in mind...this is a very raw system...it's mainly for illustration purposes...but it can also be played as a down and dirty DIY type of handicapping that "might" very well show some profit over the whole season. It might also take some tweaking...mostly I'm trying to give you some idea of the process. 

Anyway...I hope somebody finds this interesting...or useful...or at least gives some insight into following me in the future. Some of the things that I do are based on things like this. 
---
Today's MLB Filtered Select Dogs
4/20

Nothing qualifies today.

Overall Record 36-52-0 40.91% +$63.50 For a Fifty Dollar Bettor

Yesterday's Results 0-1-0 0.00% -$50.00 
---
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