Wednesday, August 24, 2016

MisterMJ NFL Preseason Handicapping 101 Part 2

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MisterMJ NFL Preseason Handicapping 101 teaching the
"MisterMJ Way" Part 2 of 2

 Part 1 Here

Everything points to the Chiefs at the Bears as the Week # 3  NFL Preseason  game to look at this week.

And after looking at this game in more detail, I am recommending an NFL Preseason wager on the Chiefs -1( it's good up to -3 in my opinion if the line slips a little bit)

In general here was my method. It's not so much a formula but teaching one way to look at Preseason match ups.

1. First I googled: "nfl preseason records" and the third link down from the top gave me this link:
NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records

2. Open that link and look at the tables provided. You will see some extensive information and history of NFL coaching Preseason records and a breakdown by each week of the Preseason. Notice also it is NOT against the spread but just Wins/Loss. That's still gives us a good idea which coaches seem to value week # 3 more than others.

3.In the bottom table "Coaches Records by Week" in Week # 3 several coaches records stand out best. Andy Reid's is one of those which stands at 11-6 in week # 3. That's 17 years of history and suggests that Andy takes his week # 3 tune up seriously. 

4. John Fox is also 8-6 in week # 3 which isn't too bad but there are other factors explained below that tilts this match up in the Chiefs favor..."maybe"...we can never be too sure. This is preseason. We are taking educated guesses here. Be careful. Don't wager too much, have fun with it and get ready for the regular season.

Now let's look at some coaches comments and see if we can seal the deal on taking the Chiefs.
Andy Reid said that the number one’s on offense and defense may play into the third quarter during what is normally the dress rehearsal game for the upcoming season.

There we go...that is what I'm looking for. We are going to get plenty of action from the starters on the Chiefs. The Chiefs are pretty deep in some areas so even with back up QB Nick Foles a veteran with many starts,they are in pretty good hands. This is about as good an outlook that we can get. Nothing is for sure but this is what we want.

Now let's look at the Bears...and it's ugly. Decimated by injuries already it's going to be a hodge podge of camp bodies filling slots. 

Oh and they have a "bug" going around too. Doesn't get much better than this.

Other Bears rookies are dealing with illnesses. Cornerback Deiondre’ Hall left practice early Tuesday after vomiting on the field. Receiver Kieren Duncan and linebacker Jarrett Grace sat out.
“A little bit of a bug going around,” Fox said.
Here is another comment...suggesting the Bears will be playing their scrubs:
with Saturday's dress rehearsal for the regular season approaching in the third preseason game against Kansas City, the Bears' injury situation only seems to get worse by the day.
"We've got plenty of bodies — we're at 90 players," coach John Fox said Sunday. "At this point you've got plenty of guys out here.
"It gives us a chance to look at some other guys and give them an opportunity to catch our eye."

 There you go...plenty of good reasons to take the Chiefs in my opinion. 

Saturday August 27 1:00 PM ET KC Chiefs @ Chicago Bears.

Take the Chiefs -1(and up to -3) 

Good luck to us. 

Sunday, August 21, 2016

MisterMJ NFL Preseason Handicapping 101 Part 1

Look for more content and more "how to" handicapping articles here in the future. It's time to give back, teach and share over a decade of lessons learned in this "art" of sports handicapping.

I've always done things different and never accepted conventional wisdom. It's something I will call...the "MisterMJ Way".

MisterMJ NFL Preseason Handicapping 101 teaching the
"MisterMJ Way" Part 1 of 2

The 2016 NFL Preseason Week # 3 is upon us and generally week # 3 is my favorite week to place an NFL Preseason Wager...if I'm going to do the dirty deed.

Preseason NFL betting is often maligned and looked down upon by many as either stupid, crazy, undisciplined, degenerate or whatever.

I used to think that myself. I'm now of the opinion that there are opportunities to carefully exploit and it's a good warm up for the regular season. I would never go too crazy with it, but let's look at some easy, simple, and often profitable opportunities that present themselves year after year.

Namely what I like to look at in week #3 of the Preseason is for coaches that use this week as their dress rehearsal for the regular season. 

In the past couple of years there has also been a break from this tradition by some, to use week #4 so you have to get it right. 

If we can find a team that is in dress rehearsal vs. a team that is waiting for another week....that's better yet.

Usually a reading of the coaches comments, press conferences or skimming articles will give you the information that you need. If you can't confirm, do not guess. Move on.

What do we want to look for?

The best situations can be a young QB that needs his reps who is on the upswing as the established starter but the coach is still coaching him up. These type of situations can give you one whole half and sometimes into the third quarter with a starting QB playing. 

That's what it comes down want top QB play and or RB/WR play into the preseason game as long as possible. Newer coaches and young teams on the upswing often have the best opportunities or teams with solid backups.

Of course you also have to consider the skill positions he has on the field with him and if there is a good young running back that needs to make a statement game for the regular season opener all the better, but it seems that this is becoming a rarer event than in the past with the emphasis on the passing game more than ever. 

What I'm trying to get across isn't so much a strict formula but I'm teaching you the mindset of the "types" of things you want to consider and look for. Some of you may already look at these things and that is fine, but this is a handicapping 101 article that talks to the basics. We will build from here.

There can be many variations of what I just described but the take home message is look for "situations" which will give you better and motivated talent on the field for the longest possible time, in hopes of more scoring than your opponent with his 2nd or 3rd string QB playing the whole game with scrubs.

For instance...if it's 1993 again, and Mike Holmgren just said in his press conference that he wants to play Brett Favre well into the 3rd quarter with the starting offense to make sure the kid is ready for the opener...well there you go. 

 It's never that easy but at some point there are opportunities that are like that if you do the work and the reading, and have the imagination to think and find the opportunities. 

What about defense? 

Yeah no kidding, this is starting to get complicated. What if the coach wants the starters to play on offense but is going to play the scrubs on defense to find out who he has to cut?

I didn't say this was easy...try to rule out an obvious situation first such as an injury riddled defense or a bad defense still trying to figure out position battles.

In general, If I find a very good situation with the offense and there isn't reason to believe the defense will be a mess,  I just go with it in a preseason game as some of this is still unpredictable.

You pick your best spots, let good situations come to you and don't chase bad preseason opportunities just to have a wager. Sometimes it doesn't work out for a wager...let it go...the regular season is coming.

What are you doing betting on a Preseason game anyway? ;-)

In Part 2 we will take this a step further and look at coaching records breakdowns and try to nail down an opportunity for this upcoming week.

End of Part 1...look for Part 2 in a day or so.

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Friday, August 19, 2016

MisterMJ 2016 NFL/NCAAF Sign UP/ NFL Preseason Tip

NFL action is here , and there is  a very profitable (and simple) NFL Preseason angle I will share below, currently hitting 13-6   +68% ATS.

For subscribers, last season was a solid year with MisterMJ's NFL Paycheck System including playoffs 12-9-0 57.14% ATS

and MisterMJ's NCAAF Computer Picks including Bowl selections hitting 8-5-0 61.54 % ATS

Documented at Wagerline:
Documented at Wagerline:
Sign Up Here and it's still only 29.99 for the 2016 NFL/ NCAAF All Inclusive Package:

All NFL and NCAAF System picks including Playoffs and Bowl games emailed directly each week.

Last season the NFL and College was 20-14-1 58.82% ATS combined for the paid subscription picks.
MisterMJ NFL Free Tip

NFL Preseason Dogs are currently 13-6-0   +68% ATS per Wagerline using closing lines.

Next week is usually the week many coaches do their regular season dress rehearsal. Reading coaches comments can sometimes find profitable preseason information added to  bench depth mismatches.