MisterMJ MLB 4/21...Dogs and a Fave Today

Milwaukee won as an example of a Filtered Favorite yesterday.

 If you are interested in the method read yesterday's blog post. 

It should be noted that three of the dogs that I filtered out....won. As of right now the filtering has saved us about .2 units. So at least in the short run so far...no harm no foul either way.

I'm going to keep things very simple today.

We have two Filtered Select Dogs and another Filtered Fave. Play them or watch me track them. The choice is yours. 

MLB Filtered Select Dogs
1:05 PM TOR +145
7:10 PM ATL +139

Overall Record  36-52-0   40.91%   +$63.50

MLB Filtered Select Faves

4:05 PM  PHI -173

Record 1-0-0 100% + $50

MisterMJ MLB 4/20 Tracking...This Is How Methods & Systems Are Built

No plays today for the Filtered Select Dog System Tracking. (Which means Dogs +128 to +180 are the "Select" part of the equation....and the Filtering means they can't be against a top 20 pitcher...AND they are filtered out for hitting performance. Season, L7 days and Home vs. Away)

Toronto , Miami,  San Fran and Washington were all filtered out as Select Dogs. (Toronto , Miami and San Fran filtered out for a poor hitting parameter....and Washington is going against top 20 pitcher Kershaw...so they are a No Play) 

 So far, the filtering has saved about 3.5 units that would have been losses. Good to keep an eye on that.

This next part may get confusing....I am illustrating how to build handicapping systems. If you have an interest I think you can work your way through the basic idea. I wish somebody would have helped me with this stuff 15 years ago. 

 I had to figure it all out from scratch...with nothing to go on. In the long run..it has helped me... to think "out of the box" and come up with ideas that nobody else uses.

Building a System of Filtered Faves
For somebody that loves to build systems and do my own handicapping...it's natural for me to take a look at these four Select Dogs that were filtered OUT as non plays....doesn't it now make sense to look at those match ups and see if we want to play any of the favorites? 

I mean ...after all....we are already saying we think there are reasons NOT to play the dogs that got filtered out.

This is how methods and systems are built. 

So....Milwaukee -153 does qualify as a Filtered Favorite. I'm not telling you to play it...I'm showing you how I came up with it...and I'm going to track the record. Let's see how they do.

Milwaukee is playing a Select Dog (Miami) that got filtered OUT as a non play...(That gets our interest....right?)

And they have hitting parameters that are in the top 10 of the league. (Last 7 and Home) So in effect we want to play ON Favorites that are in the top 10 of hitting parameters vs a team in the bottom 10 of hitting parameters. Jim Barnes says this is more important than pitching. Maybe ...maybe not...but playing around with it like this will teach us things. 

Now keep in mind...this is a very raw system...it's mainly for illustration purposes...but it can also be played as a down and dirty DIY type of handicapping that "might" very well show some profit over the whole season. It might also take some tweaking...mostly I'm trying to give you some idea of the process. 

Anyway...I hope somebody finds this interesting...or useful...or at least gives some insight into following me in the future. Some of the things that I do are based on things like this. 
---
Today's MLB Filtered Select Dogs
4/20

Nothing qualifies today.

Overall Record 36-52-0 40.91% +$63.50 For a Fifty Dollar Bettor

Yesterday's Results 0-1-0 0.00% -$50.00 
---

Follow me at my Blog 

https://mistermj.blogspot.com/

Follow me on Twitter:

https://twitter.com/mistermjdotcom

Follow me on Facebook:

https://www.facebook.com/mistermj.picks/

And Always Find Me at mistermj.com or View the Twitter Feed There: 

www.mistermj.com

MisterMJ MLB 4/19 ....Filters...and a Filtered Afternoon Play

I am tracking "Select" MLB Dogs in April here, and on Twitter to provide a service to readers. 

You can play them...watch me track them...whatever. In the long run these MLB dogs have shown value in April.  Not every season, but many. 

It's a good way to start the new season while we wait for things to settle in...in my opinion anyway.

Anyone can do this and it can be fun to do for baseball betting fans.

For the rest of April I am filtering the Select Dogs (+128 to +180 is what the "Select" means).

I'm filtering out playing against the top 20 pitchers. Most pitchers have a few games under their belt now...and every season there are some pitchers that are just "ON" ...so why go against somebody that is having one of those God like years when he just has nasty stuff?

The other filter is related to hitting. Jim Barnes swears hitting is more important than pitching. At least in some ways I think he is correct...although...like I just said ...there is no sense in going against the top 20 pitchers...of which some of those guys will be nearly un-hittable this season and have a career year.

So...today I filtered OUT : Toronto , Miami and San Fran.

This leaves us with just one pick again today....and it's Seattle.

Yesterday's filtering saved us close to a half a unit....I will keep an eye on the teams I filter out and make sure that it seems to be working.

I will do these filtered plays for the rest of April....then I will switch to a different system and provide plays for the rest of the season.


Yesterday's Results 0-1-0 0.00% -$50.00

Today's Filtered MLB Early Season Select Dog Trackers

3:40 PM SEA +163

Overall Record 36-51-0 41.38% +$113.50

Follow me at my Blog 

https://mistermj.blogspot.com/

Follow me on Twitter:

https://twitter.com/mistermjdotcom

Follow me on Facebook:

https://www.facebook.com/mistermj.picks/

And Always Find Me at mistermj.com or View the Twitter Feed There: 

www.mistermj.com

MisterMJ MLB 4/18...Adding MLB Filters

For the rest of April I am going to filter out some teams based on hitting and pitching. We have enough stats to go on now...I don't think it makes sense to completely ignore current performance once we have some stats to go on. 

I showed you how to do this....so you can do it yourself if you don't want the filtered plays. You can read the explanation at the link on how and why to play Select Early Season MLB Dogs : https://mistermj.blogspot.com/2018/03/mistermj-opening-day-mlb-and-things-are.html

So...today I filtered OUT... Cin , San Fran and Seattle are NOT PLAYs...based on Filtering for pitching/hitting. 

That leaves us with just one play tonight. 

If you have questions I will help you. Go to mistermj.com and there is contact information there. I will answer your questions. 

Do what you want...watch my tracking....play them how you want to...or follow my filtering.

It's up to you...I think it makes sense to filter them down now. 

Yesterday's Results 2-6-0 25.00% -$163.50 For a Fifty Dollar Bettor

 Today's MLB Filtered Select Early Season Dog Trackers
4/18

10:10 PM SD +155

Overall Record  36-50-0  41.86% +$163.50 For a Fifty Dollar Bettor

Follow me at my Blog 

https://mistermj.blogspot.com/

Follow me on Twitter:

https://twitter.com/mistermjdotcom

Follow me on Facebook:

https://www.facebook.com/mistermj.picks/

And Always Find Me at mistermj.com or View the Twitter Feed There: 

www.mistermj.com

MisterMJ MLB Tues. 4/17....Bryce Harper Magic !

Last night we had  some magic happen with the Nats...it's very enjoyable to play a system like this and have something like that happen with a +160 Dog to ensure a winning night.

Harper hits broken-bat HR, helps Nats rally past Mets 8-6
The Associated Press
11h ago

NEW YORK (AP) The shear power of Bryce Harper was startling. The late comeback by the Washington Nationals? Yep, that was shocking, too.

Harper hit an eye-popping, broken-bat homer early, then grounded a key single during a six-run surge in the eighth inning that sent the Nationals past the New York Mets 8-6 Monday night.

''Barreled it pretty good,'' Harper said. ''It just broke and kept going.''

Today's MLB Early Season Select Dog Tracking
Tues. 4/17

6:37 PM KC +175

7:05 PM COL +130

7:10 PM MIN +180

7:40 PM CIN +137

10:05 PM CHW +155

10:07 PM BOS +143

10:10 PM SD +172

10:10 PM SEA +157

Overall Record 34-44-0 43.59% +$327.00 For a Fifty Dollar Bettor

Yesterday's Result 1-1-0 50% +$30.00 For a Fifty Dollar Bettor.

Follow me at my Blog 

https://mistermj.blogspot.com/

Follow me on Twitter:

https://twitter.com/mistermjdotcom

Follow me on Facebook:

https://www.facebook.com/mistermj.picks/

And Always Find Me at mistermj.com or View the Twitter Feed There: 

www.mistermj.com

MisterMJ MLB Mon. 4/16

We had a couple of games PPD yesterday and one loss. 

Internet down today...big time...running late here. 

Yesterday 0-1-0 0.00% -$50.00 For a Fifty Dollar Bettor

Today's MLB Early Season Select Dog Trackers
07:10 PM WAS +160

07:10 PM TEX +165

Overall  33-43-0 43.42% +$297.00 For a Fifty Dollar Bettor

MisterMJ MLB 4/15...."Priming the Pump"

Let's keep it real for the MLB Select Dogs...the Downs come with the Ups. 
Please read my little story below called "Priming the Pump" as it relates to this.

MLB Select Dogs  still up nearly +7 Units  / $50 = 1 Unit For Tracking Purpose

Yesterday's MLB Results Early Season Dog Trackers
1-5-0 16.67% -$172 50 For a Fifty Dollar Bettor

Overall 33-42-0 44.00% +$347.00 For a Fifty Dollar Bettor  
---
Today's MLB Early Season Select Dog Tracking
Sun. 4/15

01:10 PM CIN +153

02:20 PM ATL +160

07:10 PM DET +135
-----
Priming the Pump

The term "Priming the Pump" comes from the old fashioned hand water pumps in which you had to pour water into a suction valve in the pump before you could get it to pump water out of the well. 

You had to "Prime" it first...in order to get the action you wanted...as in pumping water. 

"Priming the Pump" is a very fascinating term as it relates to human psychology in my opinion, and it relates directly to sports bettors and the "Greed" receptors in our brains.

Let me tell you a personal story to illustrate my point.

A few years ago at an Indian Casino in Florida I found myself with my girlfriend and a small group of people. As we had never been there before it was custom for new customers to sign up and get the casino's rewards card which gave the benefit of some free tokens to play the slot machines with ect. 

Now yes...this is an example of "Priming the Pump"...it was a marketing strategy by the casino to get new players to start playing the slots. Whatever money was lost by the casino in doing this was quickly replaced by new profits from the new customers that were "hooked" so to speak into playing.

I think we all get this to some extent...we know what they are doing....no big deal.

Now here is where it gets interesting....

I can't prove it...but what happened next illustrates my point whether it was actually a type of conspiracy by the casino or not. It could have been a random coincidence...doesn't even matter.

I played my tokens on one of the dedicated slot machines that you had to play them on...and Bam! ...I won $400 Dollars within a few pulls. Wow...right? That's the start of a good night. 

Except not me...I was done. That's how I am and I realize I am one of the few that can do that. But I got extreme enjoyment by cashing out...buying drinks for everyone all night and having the best steak in the restaurant later that evening. 

I had fun with it...and manufactured a good memory for everyone in my group.

A small unexpected windfall turned into a great evening and some stories to tell. Not bad for a sleepy Thursday night with nothing else to do.

My girlfriend had exactly the same thing happen to her...on the same machine no less. A couple of pulls and Bam! $400 Dollar winner....Woo Hoo! Everyone was laughing and having a good ol time.

I'm not sure but I suspect some of the others ended up spending MORE than they would have that night gambling BECAUSE of how the night started out with two people winning $400 Bucks.

That's "Priming the Pump"...and the casino knows full well that in the long run they will recoup more money back than they will lose...even handing out $400 Bucks like that...because hardly anyone is like me just putting it in my pocket.

The story of my girlfriend is the most interesting. After winning that $400 she got a glean in her eye that is hard to explain but she was gone the rest of the night. She wanted to turn that $400 into a few thousand. She couldn't get it out of her head to win one of the slots' progressive pots because she had a free shot at it. 

Of course she ended up losing the whole $400 AND then couldn't help herself and lost a couple hundred more of her own money. She ended up in a sour mood...the experience wasn't even fun for her. If I brought it up later...she never wanted to talk about it. It was a BAD experience. 

She couldn't handle her emotions and what "Priming the Pump" did to her. It got her into an excited state...she became greedy and ended up losing more than she had intended on spending in the first place.

When you have a winning run...or win some large bets..it's the same thing for you. When you fail to have a plan or use money management...this is what is happening to you. 

It's not any fun...it's not enjoyable....and you will never win in the long run without controlling your emotions and having a plan. 

If I can do anything...please start thinking about these things and lets see if I can start showing you a better way to approach all of this.

MJ

Follow me at my Blog 

https://mistermj.blogspot.com/

Follow me on Twitter:

https://twitter.com/mistermjdotcom

Follow me on Facebook:

https://www.facebook.com/mistermj.picks/

And Always Find Me at mistermj.com or View the Twitter Feed There: 

www.mistermj.com