MisterMJ NFL Preseason Handicapping 101 Part 2

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MisterMJ NFL Preseason Handicapping 101 teaching the

"MisterMJ Way" Part 2 of 2

 Part 1 Here: http://mistermj.blogspot.com/2016/08/mistermj-nfl-preseason-handicapping-101.html

Everything points to the Chiefs at the Bears as the Week # 3  NFL Preseason  game to look at this week.

And after looking at this game in more detail, I am recommending an NFL Preseason wager on the Chiefs -1( it's good up to -3 in my opinion if the line slips a little bit)

In general here was my method. It's not so much a formula but teaching one way to look at Preseason match ups.

1. First I googled: "nfl preseason records" and the third link down from the top gave me this link:
NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records
http://walterfootball.com/betting_PRE.php

2. Open that link and look at the tables provided. You will see some extensive information and history of NFL coaching Preseason records and a breakdown by each week of the Preseason. Notice also it is NOT against the spread but just Wins/Loss. That's ok...it still gives us a good idea which coaches seem to value week # 3 more than others.

3.In the bottom table "Coaches Records by Week" in Week # 3 several coaches records stand out best. Andy Reid's is one of those which stands at 11-6 in week # 3. That's 17 years of history and suggests that Andy takes his week # 3 tune up seriously. 

4. John Fox is also 8-6 in week # 3 which isn't too bad but there are other factors explained below that tilts this match up in the Chiefs favor..."maybe"...we can never be too sure. This is preseason. We are taking educated guesses here. Be careful. Don't wager too much, have fun with it and get ready for the regular season.

Now let's look at some coaches comments and see if we can seal the deal on taking the Chiefs.

Andy Reid said that the number one’s on offense and defense may play into the third quarter during what is normally the dress rehearsal game for the upcoming season.

http://www.wibwnewsnow.com/audio-alex-smith-marcus-peters-press-conferences/

There we go...that is what I'm looking for. We are going to get plenty of action from the starters on the Chiefs. The Chiefs are pretty deep in some areas so even with back up QB Nick Foles a veteran with many starts,they are in pretty good hands. This is about as good an outlook that we can get. Nothing is for sure but this is what we want.

Now let's look at the Bears...and it's ugly. Decimated by injuries already it's going to be a hodge podge of camp bodies filling slots. 

Oh and they have a "bug" going around too. Doesn't get much better than this.

Other Bears rookies are dealing with illnesses. Cornerback Deiondre’ Hall left practice early Tuesday after vomiting on the field. Receiver Kieren Duncan and linebacker Jarrett Grace sat out.
“A little bit of a bug going around,” Fox said.

http://chicago.suntimes.com/sports/rookie-de-jonathan-bullard-still-absent-but-should-play-vs-kc/

Here is another comment...suggesting the Bears will be playing their scrubs:

with Saturday's dress rehearsal for the regular season approaching in the third preseason game against Kansas City, the Bears' injury situation only seems to get worse by the day.

"We've got plenty of bodies — we're at 90 players," coach John Fox said Sunday. "At this point you've got plenty of guys out here.

"It gives us a chance to look at some other guys and give them an opportunity to catch our eye."

http://www.galesburg.com/sports/20160822/chicago-bears-injury-list-growing

 There you go...plenty of good reasons to take the Chiefs in my opinion. 

Saturday August 27 1:00 PM ET KC Chiefs @ Chicago Bears.

Take the Chiefs -1(and up to -3) 

Good luck to us. 
MJ
http://www.mistermj.com/

NFL Week 13 Nov 30

Another 2-1 week last week...love this card.

Emotional factors working for us here...big time.
Good luck!
NFL Sunday, November 30


1:00 PM ET Green Bay -3 $500



1:00 PM ET Tampa Bay -4 $500


8:15 PM ET Chicago +3.5 $500


23-12-1 65.71% +$4900

NFL Computer Picks |Week 6

Week 6 picks look solid again...and once again the computer is leaning toward home teams that will teach some high flyers a lesson this week.

The Atlanta pick has the computer lit up with the most indicators this week. A solid home dawg that has the computer barking.

San Diego seems to have a solid edge...Tampa scares me a little...but I'll just trust the computer knows more than I do.

Personally, I also like the Raiders/NO under 47 and Baltimore +4...but those are NOT official picks for the record.

Good luck!

Chicago - 1:00 PM ET Atlanta +3 $500
Atlanta -

Carolina - 1:00 PM ET Tampa Bay -1 $500
Tampa Bay -

New England - 8:15 PM ET San Diego -5 $500
San Diego -


Computer Pick 3 Record

9-5-1 64.29% +$1750

Computer Special Situations Record

1-1 -$216

***NFL Computer Picks*** Week 5 Oct 5

Here we go...week 5. Looks like a good card to me. The computer loves these home teams in excellent situations to knock off teams flying a little too high this week.

I've never seen so many indicators pointing to a team like Arizona this week. The computer loves this pick. But that doesn't mean to wager more on it...these wagers are always flat bets.

There is also a Special Situation pick this week. Detroit +3.5 $500 shows excellent value with a home bye team hosting a division rival off a hard fought win. Look for a Bear let down here.

Good luck!

3 Pack of Picks

Washington - 1:00 PM ET Philadelphia -6 $500
Philadelphia -

Kansas City - 1:00 PM ET Carolina -9.5 $500
Carolina -

Buffalo - 4:15 PM ET Arizona -1 $500
Arizona -

Computer Pick 3 Record

7-4-1 63.64% +$1300


Computer Special Situations Record

1-0 +$234

NFL Week 2 Wrap Up

Just to wrap up the picks this week.

Carolina -3

Chicago is not going to have nearly as easy a week this week...they just happened to hit Indy in a really bad spot with their injuries..Not to mention starting off 2 weeks on the road...not easy to do.

The computer says just get the Indy game out of your head...Chicago is not nearly as good as they looked. Take away Forte's 50 yard run and he was just average. An average running game will not be enough to make the Bears look good again.

Carolina at home this week is solid value. And don't worry about Carolina's poor home trend.Could be a low scoring close one though.

SD -1 (Now moved to +1)
The computer sees a solid rebound play here against Denver coming off a short week...and a game that was maybe too easy.

Denver has to prove they can do it against a good team...San Diego needs this one more. Hint...Denver didn't exactly stop the Raiders as much as the Raiders stopped themselves. Value goes to SD here.

49'ers / Seahawks Over 38

This doesn't look all that good on paper...how will the Seahawks even score? The computer sees other things. Bank on two teams over performing on offense this week...motivated professionals get it done...even if they are no-names.

It's not a pick but I like SF +7 as the best dog this week...it was really close to being a pick, but the computer is conservative until week 4.

The first couple of weeks are the toughest...if the computer can hit 2 out of 3 here...that would be great.

Good luck!

NFL Week 2 Writeup

NFL Week 2 Writeup

Computer Report

Dog Alert (Possible dog ATS winners)
St. Louis +9
Cleveland +6

Fade Alert (Possible fades, to play against)
Chicago +3
Arizona -6.5
Philly +7
Miami +6.5

Highly Motivated (Emotional factors are lined up for a rebound)
SF +9
St. Louis +9

These are NOT picks...I'm just sharing what comes up in my screens. It's good information to have to narrow down the picks.

Some years you can make really good money playing these...but I consider them only part of the process. The computer considers these factors into making the 3 best picks.

I will follow up with more information on the actual picks Friday."

NFL Week 1

Giants ML winner. A great way to start.

Computer Select ML Record
1-0 +$234
==========

Computer 3 Pack Week 1 NFL

Sunday, September 7

Game Score Status Pick Amount
Seattle - 1:00 PM ET Buffalo -1 $500
Buffalo -

Dallas - 4:15 PM ET Under 49 $500
Cleveland -

Chicago - 8:15 PM ET Under 44 $500
Indianapolis -


The computer sees tremendous value with Buffalo only giving up a point at home against Seattle. A very large projected advantage that frankly I don't see myself...but I've learned to trust the computer with this.

Dallas/Clev Under 49 is a solid under selection with preseason statistics and historic performance suggesting a +67% chance of an under. Watch out for Clev this year...the computer doesn't think much of them at all right now.

Chicago / Indy Under 44 another strong under selection based on Chicago's incredibly poor offense and key injuries in the Indy offensive triangle that history suggests will take some time to work out. Again...a high chance of underperformance in scoring in this game.

P.S. I changed my mind again...I will not be offering the volume picks...I have two nice systems going here...thats enough. I don't need to bring the experiments in and complicate things. If the experiment works...I will share it.

Good luck!