MisterMJ NFL Week # 3 Thoughts and Picks

The NFL Week  #3 and sometimes week #4 are good for bounce-backs with teams that have struggled, and it's also good for some regression in teams that started off well. 

There is  line value in the public's over-reaction to early season wins and losses, in other words.

For NFL Week # 3 I like Tampa Bay -5, Jacksonville +1.5, Buffalo +3.5, and Indianapolis -2.5

All of these are home teams which I think is important at this point in the season. 

All of these match ups have some element of expecting a bounce back in performance...or going against an opponent off of a big win, or both.

I still recommend caution..keep your wagers small is my recommendation. They are still just guesses until we run the System Picks.

It may be safest to play all of them to spread out the risk...just keep your wagers smaller than what you would bet on with the system picks.

Good luck to us. 

It's not too late to sign up for the NFL & NCAAF All Inclusive Package. We are just getting started in the next week or so after we get a few more stats to work with.

Sign Up Here and it's still only 29.99 for the 2016 NFL/ NCAAF All Inclusive Package: https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=2Q5KMLSWY7DHJ

The Package is guaranteed to win positive units in total, or the next season is free.

MJ

mistermj.com

NFL Preseason 2016 Notes and Wrap Up. What Can We Learn?

Looking back on the 2016 NFL Preseason what are some of  the take aways? What can we learn  and maybe use for next season to form a template and hit the ground running?

Overall betting on dogs was the winning method going 30-24-1 55.56%  ATS  using closing lines at Covers.com

Dogs seem to do best the first two weeks of the Preseason and it makes sense as nobody can analyze what is going to happen anyway, when coaches are evaluating their teams rather than game planning or scheming to win. Getting the points on games that are anybody's guess ...or a coin flip if you will...seems logical.


After the first two weeks of the Preseason, Dogs were  17-9-0 65.38% ATS. I think we would all take that. It probably will not happen like that every year, but over time I don't think you would get hurt just exploiting the dogs for the first two weeks every year.Something to watch.

Week # 3 is the week for dress rehearsals and things change. We did well with our analysis here and I laid out the simple method for picking the Chiefs winner in two articles:

MisterMJ NFL Preseason Handicapping 101 Part 1

MisterMJ NFL Preseason Handicapping 101 Part 2

Week #4 Went back to a slight bias toward the dogs overall 7-6-0 53.85 % ATS overall. 

Not really much to go on there, but then realize that the Week #4 Over/ Unders were 11-5-0 68.75% UNDER this season, and looking back to 2015 were 10-6-0 62.5% UNDER for NFL Preseason Week #4. Something to consider next season and again it makes some sense if defense is ahead of offense at this point of the season, as the saying goes anyway.

Preseason Game Plan and Template for Next Year

1. Consider Dogs the first two weeks of the Preseason. Playing all of them with small wagers as a volume system may capture units. Probably not every year, but over time it may have a dog bias.

2. In Week # 3 of dress rehearsals follow the plan in the two handicapping articles listed above. Basically look for QB/bench mismatches and coaches comments on long playing times for established starters vs. a team not doing that or with injury problems or a shallow bench.

3. In Week # 4 of the Preseason , as outlined above, we should take a look at playing Unders if the linesmakers continue to shade the lines too much to overs. 

That should just about do it for our look at the 2016 NFL Preseason. 

This is all meant to be very basic stuff. But these are building blocks for the regular season and they are building blocks for more advanced systems. 

You have to start somewhere, and this was a first in a series of "Handicapping 101" methods for the "MisterMJ Way".

For the regular season I will show you how to use Statistics Tables to track various statistical elements of the NFL game to use as part of a handicapping method I call the "10/10".

We'll start getting into that in the weeks ahead.

Sooner or later...you may want to subscribe to the NFL/NCAAF All Inclusive Package to receive my most advanced Systems Picks delivered weekly by email. 

Sit back relax...just let me do all the work.

Sometimes we strike gold, last year we did pretty well, not golden but pretty darn good.

Last season the NFL/NCAAF All Inclusive Package was 20-14-1 58.82% ATS combined for the paid subscription picks including NFL Playoffs and College Bowl Games.

Just Pretend you had bet $50 on each pick last season...you would be ahead over $250 including paying just $29.99...once... for the All Inclusive Package.

Who wouldn't have wanted a Free $250.00 ?????

Sign Up Here and it's still only 29.99 for the 2016 NFL/ NCAAF All Inclusive Package: https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=2Q5KMLSWY7DHJ

Thanks, MJ

mistermj.com

Follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/mistermjdotcom

Follow me on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/mistermj.picks/

MisterMJ NFL Preseason Free Pick Sept 1 8:00 PM ET

We hit our NFL Free Pick last week with Kansas City  and we have a decent shot again this week with the Green Bay Packers as +3.5 point dogs at Kansas City.

Trying to handicap NFL Preseason games is challenging, but suppose there are some details that might sway things our way?

Realize that the  Packers have won four of their last five preseason finales, according to Packers.com. 

I think it's fair to say that McCarthy plays to win while evaluating Packer teams that have been very deep in talent, and this particular team is the deepest, maybe ever, which means there may be an advantage against Kansas City later in the game playing scrubs vs. scrubs.

From back up QB's to the back end of the Wide Receivers, Offensive line and Defensive backs, Green Bay is loaded. Even their scrubs should play a competitive game and many of the cuts will make other teams 53 man rosters.

Over the last two years, Green Bay has outscored its opponents, 72-24, in Week 4 of the preseason, according to Packers.com.

Andy Reid is 6-11 in game # 4 of the Preseason during his coaching lifetime. He seems to let his foot off the gas a little bit in game # 4.

I suggest caution and wouldn't wager very much on a Preseason game, save it for the regular season because that is when we rack up the units with proven handicapping systems.

 And sooner or later our System Picks find gold, and have one of those magical blow out seasons to remember.

Which is why you should consider signing up for this years NFL/NCAAF All Inclusive Package because it's still guaranteed and it's still just $29.99. And we did a pretty good job last season, not magical, but pretty good. 

2015 NFL and College Record 20-14-1 58.82% ATS combined for paid subscription picks including NFL Playoffs and Bowl games.

Sign Up Here for the 2016 NFL/NCAAF Picks, and it's still only $29.99 For the All Inclusive Package: https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=2Q5KMLSWY7DHJ
----
Free Pick

Take Green Bay +3.5 tonight at Kansas City at 8:00 PM ET.
Preseason NFL Record 1-0

Good luck to us.

MJ
mistermj.com

NFL Pick 3 Week # 8 Friday October 30

The Pick 3's are on a little run...5-0-1 the last two weeks...and we needed it, to keep digging out of the early season hole.

Good luck!


NFL Pick 3

NFL

Sunday, November 1

Game	Score	Status	Pick	Amount
Denver	-	1:00 PM ET	Denver +3.5	500
Baltimore	-
Cleveland	-	1:00 PM ET	Over 40	500
Chicago	-

Monday, November 2

Game	Score	Status	Pick	Amount
Atlanta	-	8:30 PM ET	New Orleans -10	500
New Orleans	-

10-10-1

50.00%

-500

NFL Week 8 EMO System

Another winning week for the EMO's last week going 2-1...and a very respectable 15-10 for 60% ATS so far.

Here are this weeks teams...which the computer thinks are just sooooooo emotional this week.
(Or they are playing somebody that is an emotional wreck)

Do what you want with them...the record last year was well above 60% through week 12...and they are on a similar pace this year as well.

Good luck!

NFL EMO's Sunday, November 1

Game	Score	Status	Pick	Amount
Houston	-	1:00 PM ET	Houston -3.5	500
Buffalo	-
Cleveland	-	1:00 PM ET	Chicago -13	500
Chicago	-
Miami	-	1:00 PM ET	Miami +3.5	500
N.Y. Jets	-
N.Y. Giants	-	1:00 PM ET	N.Y. Giants -1	500
Philadelphia	-

15-10-0

60.00%

+$2000

Documented Picks for the EMO System

Date	WLT	Pct	Net Units	Record
10/25/09	2-1-0	66.67%	+450	Detail
10/18/09	3-1-0	75.00%	+950	Detail
10/12/09	0-1-0	0.00%	-550	Detail
10/11/09	1-2-0	33.33%	-600	Detail
10/05/09	1-0-0	100.00%	+500	Detail
10/04/09	3-1-0	75.00%	+950	Detail
09/28/09	1-0-0	100.00%	+500	Detail
09/27/09	1-2-0	33.33%	-600	Detail
09/21/09	0-1-0	0.00%	-550	Detail
09/20/09	3-1-0	75.00%	+950	Detail

NFL Pick 3 Week #7 Friday October 23

NFL Computer Picks

Finally, a nice 3-0 sweep last week.

Good luck!

P.S. I will be starting the always popular NBA picks next week.

Look for a post to review the incredible record here...and give details on the upcoming season of NBA Free Picks and the Beer Money NBA Unders...sponsored by Schlitz.


NFL Pick 3
Sunday, October 25

Game	Score	Status	Pick	Amount
San Francisco	-	1:00 PM ET	San Francisco +3	500
Houston	-
Green Bay	-	1:00 PM ET	Green Bay -9.5	500
Cleveland	-

Monday, October 26

Game	Score	Status	Pick	Amount
Philadelphia	-	8:30 PM ET	Over 37	500
Washington	-

8-10-0	44.44%	-1500

=======================================

NFL EMO's
So far, the EMO's have done well.

13-9-0	59.09%	+1550

I am trying to give you as many tools as I can for you to be successful.

Use them as you see fit. They were well over 60% ATS last year until week #12.


EMO's are emotional factors that lead to over and under performance on the football field.(In theory)

NFL EMO's


Sunday, October 25

Game	Score	Status	Pick	Amount
New England	-	1:00 PM ET	Tampa Bay +14.5	500
Tampa Bay	-
Buffalo	-	4:05 PM ET	Buffalo +7	500
Carolina	-
N.Y. Jets	-	4:05 PM ET	N.Y. Jets -6	500
Oakland	-

NFL Pick 3 Week #6 Friday October 16

There is just no way to polish this turd...and I'm not going to try.

So far...this has been F'ugly.

I'll keep working the Pick 3 system, we also have the EMO's here...and I'm working on a long time project for a power ratings system that predicts ATS wins.

My goal is to have the Computer picks, continue with the EMO's and refine a Power Ratings system probably by next week, after week 6.

Hopefully, each year...something will always be hot...or at least good enough to get us through the rough spots like this year when one system is not performing.

Good luck!

NFL Pick 3


Sunday, October 18

Game	Score	Status	Pick	Amount
Tennessee	-	4:15 PM ET	New England -9.5	500
New England	-
Chicago	-	8:20 PM ET	Under 45.5	500
Atlanta	-

Monday, October 19

Game	Score	Status	Pick	Amount
Denver	-	8:30 PM ET	Denver +3.5	500
San Diego	-

5-10-0

33.33%

-$3000

=====================
EMO's are emotional factors that usually lead to over and under performance on the playing field. (in theory). They are usually contrarian to public opinion and have done well in the past...and are doing fairly well, so far this year.

NFL EMO's


Sunday, October 18

Game	Score	Status	Pick	Amount
St. Louis	-	1:00 PM ET	St. Louis +9.5	500
Jacksonville	-
Baltimore	-	1:00 PM ET	Baltimore +3	500
Minnesota	-
Carolina	-	1:00 PM ET	Tampa Bay +3	500
Tampa Bay	-
Philadelphia	-	4:05 PM ET	Oakland +14	500
Oakland	-

10-8-0

55.56%

+$600

NFL Pick 3 Week #5 Friday October 09

NFL Week #5 Computer Picks

Pick 3
Sunday, October 11

Game	Score	Status	Pick	Amount
Cleveland	-	1:00 PM ET	Buffalo -6	500
Buffalo	-
Washington	-	1:00 PM ET	Under 37.5	500
Carolina	-

Monday, October 12

Game	Score	Status	Pick	Amount
N.Y. Jets	-	8:30 PM ET	N.Y. Jets -1	500
Miami	-

Still trying to dig out of a slow start here.

NFL Betting

Last weeks 2-1 record is more like it.

Maybe things will heat up.

Good luck!

Record:

4-8-0

33.33%

-2400

NFL Pick 3 Week #4 Friday October 2

Off to a really rough start here. In theory we should be entering the "sweet spot" for stat systems. I'm still hopeful this is going to turn around soon.

Good luck!

NFL Pick 3


Sunday, October 4

Game	Score	Status	Pick	Amount
Oakland	-	1:00 PM ET	Over 42.5	500
Houston	-
Dallas	-	4:15 PM ET	Denver +3	500
Denver	-

Monday, October 5

Game	Score	Status	Pick	Amount
Green Bay	-	8:20 PM ET	Minnesota -3.5	500
Minnesota	-

2-7-0

22.22%

-2850

NFL Pick 3 Week #3 Friday Sept 25

Pick 3 Free Computer Picks

We've had a slow start so far...obviously I'm hoping things start to pick up here.

I will just keep working the system and things will go our way.

Good luck!

Sunday, September 27

Game	Score	Status	Pick	Amount
N.Y. Giants	-	1:00 PM ET	Tampa Bay +6.5	500
Tampa Bay	-
Tennessee	-	1:00 PM ET	Tennessee +1	500
N.Y. Jets	-
New Orleans	-	4:05 PM ET	Under 51.5	500
Buffalo	-

1-5-0

16.67%

-$2250

==============================
Pick 5 Record (Available with $25 donation)

4-6-0

40.00%

-1300

NFL Pick 3 Week #2 Friday Sept 18

NFL Pick 3 Week #2

Sunday, September 20

Game	Score	Status	Pick	Amount
Carolina	-	1:00 PM ET	Carolina +6.5	500
Atlanta	-
Pittsburgh	-	4:15 PM ET	Chicago +3	500
Chicago	-

Monday, September 21

Game	Score	Status	Pick	Amount
Indianapolis	-	8:30 PM ET	Miami +3	500
Miami	-

Record

0-3-0

0.00%

-$1650

NFL Pick 3 Vs. Pick 5 Comparison

The Pick 5 is still available for a small $25 donation...I am still receiving a lot of emails from people who could not meet the Friday deadline or wanted to see last years record.

If you still want the Pick 5 I will still accept donations.

But please be patient, I do have other things to do today.

It may take me a couple of hours to get back to you after Paypal emails me your donation confirmation...today or Sunday morning up to 10 am. CST.

I wanted to wrap this up, but it seems many people have waited or could not sign up until the weekend. ( Degenerates...LOL)

Thanks,

MJ

NFL Computer Picks 08 Season (Pick 3)

29-20-259.18%+$3500ViewView

NFL Computer Picks 08 Season (Pick 5)

51-32-261.45%+$7900ViewView

NFL Pick 3 Week # 1 Friday Sept 11

Here we go. Good luck!

Reminder! If you still want the Pick 5 system...please make your $25 donation by midnight tonight!
http://mistermj.blogspot.com/

I recommend flat betting all of these for 1 unit...that's how I do it. No pick is any better than any other pick.

Determine what your unit size is for your size of bankroll.

For record keeping purposes only, I use $500 per wager.

I use Wagerline to document the picks. You may find a better or worse line at your book.

Wagerline usually gives a pretty fair line that is available at any good book, and that is what I will use.

Thanks,

MJ

Sunday, September 13

Game	Score	Status	Pick	Amount
Philadelphia	-	1:00 PM ET	Under 43.5	500
Carolina	-
Denver	-	1:00 PM ET	Cincinnati -4	500
Cincinnati	-
Dallas	-	1:00 PM ET	Under 39	500
Tampa Bay	-

NFL Picks Week 1( Pick 3 and Pick 5)

At this time I do not see a pick for the Thursday night opening NFL game.

I will release the NFL WEEK 1 picks early Friday here at the blog for free Pick 3 ...
and by email if you donated for the Pick 5 package.

If you have signed up for the Pick 5 package I will be sending out a "TEST" email tonight.

PLEASE DO NOT RESPOND TO THE TEST EMAIL!

If you do not receive the "TEST" email by Thursday morning, or have any other issue, please contact me by using the email button here at the blog.

I would prefer all communication come through the blogs email button when possible.

Please keep the email communications for important matters only.

Congratulations, bitching or other small talk is best done at my NFL thread in the Rx forum here:

http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?p=6338429#post6338429

Or leave a message in my blog post.

Thank you for your support...and Good luck to us this season!

P.S. I will only accept Pick 5 donation sign ups until midnight Friday CST...I have to wrap up the loose ends before Saturday if at all possible.

MJ

NFL Pick 5 and Donations

I really underestimated the response for people wanting the NFL "Pick 5" picks.

Wow!

I'm forced to rethink how I am going to handle this and have it not be a burden for me...and still be fair to everyone involved.

This is the best I can do.

If you have already donated ANY amount in the past you will be grandfathered into this years NFL pick 5 selections. I have a list of all past donors...I will make sure you are included and thank you again for your support. It helps...a lot.

If you were one of the larger donors in the past, I will make sure you receive extra value going forward.

For all the people that have recently contacted me by email...any donation of $25 or more made by midnight Friday will receive the NFL Pick 5. I need to wrap this all up by late Friday to prepare for the new season. Please use the donation button on the blog if possible. You do not need to have a paypal account to use it. It is safe and encrypted. If you must send a check contact me by email...again paypal is much easier for all concerned.

I'm not very comfortable charging for picks...but a $25 donation is ridiculously low for all the free picks and now the Pick 5.

My goal is to provide a lot of very good sports picks for little or no donation. It looks like this might work out for everyone if the people that really want a little extra, in effect pay for all the free stuff and my time.

Or...if I'm wrong and people think it is too much...that's fine. We can scale it all back and just do the free stuff, and I can just keep things simple with the NFL Pick 3.

The Pick 5 more than doubled the units won last year over the Pick 3...so people have choices and I will never charge for what has been free in the past.

Fair enough I'd say...or to hell with ya. LOL!

Best regards,

MJ

P.S. A comparison of the 3 Pack record vs. the 5 Pack record last year.


NFL Computer Picks 08 Season (Pick 3)

29-20-2

59.18%

+$3500

View

View

NFL Computer Picks 08 Season (Pick 5)

51-32-2

61.45%

+$7900

View

View

NFL 09 Regular Season is Here !

I've been asked by many if I'm going to start charging for my picks...the answer is NO. But I'm not afraid to ask for your support, as I know I try to provide a very very good service for free.

I'll keep this short and sweet.

If you have done well with my picks, NBA, MLB RL System or past NFL... donations are accepted through the PayPal button upper right of my blog...I don't ask for much, but if each of you made a small donation it would at least help pay for my time.

I spend at least an hour or two per day...every day to keep this all going. And yes...I do make nice money off my picks myself...but it's only fair...I would like to cover my time and effort when I provide a service with a winning record.

If you don't want to make a donation...I do not require it...they are "free picks"...and will remain so as long as I feel like doing this. Other ways to support my efforts are to tell your friends...the more members that sign up for the email service gives me more opportunities for ads and donations. Also...each post has a small envelope symbol below it that allows you to email my post to a friend to help spread the word.

Thank You! in advance... and I look forward to the new NFL Season and very soon a new NBA Season.


MJ

P.S. I will provide the "3 Pack" of NFL picks...3 per week for the regular season for free as I always have.

Last year I also experimented with a "5 Pack" ...5 picks per week of the regular season and it more than doubled the units won.

If anyone is interested in the "5 Pack" ...they are available by request with special restrictions.

Click the email button in the upper right of the blog to email me for more information.

NFL Preseason Picks Saturday August 15

Four good looking match ups tonight in my opinion.

Good luck!

Saturday, August 15

Game	Score	Status	Pick	Amount
Atlanta	-	4:00 PM ET	Atlanta +3	500
Detroit	-
Cleveland	-	8:00 PM ET	Cleveland +3	500
Green Bay	-
Houston	-	8:00 PM ET	Under 37.5	500
Kansas City	-
Tampa Bay	-	8:00 PM ET	Tampa Bay +4	500
Tennessee	-

5-3-1

62.50%

+850

No teasers tonight...teaser record is 1-1.

NFL Preseason Picks Friday August 14

Friday, August 14

Game	Score	Status	Pick	Amount
St. Louis	-	7:00 PM ET	St. Louis +3.5	500
N.Y. Jets	-
Minnesota	-	7:30 PM ET	Under 35	500
Indianapolis	-
Cincinnati	-	8:00 PM ET	Cincinnati +3.5	500
New Orleans	-
Denver	-	10:00 PM ET	Denver +3	500
San Francisco	-

2-2-1

50.00%

-100