Looking back on the 2016 NFL Preseason what are some of the take aways? What can we learn and maybe use for next season to form a template and hit the ground running?Overall betting on dogs was the winning method going 30-24-1 55.56% ATS using closing lines at Covers.com
Dogs seem to do best the first two weeks of the Preseason and it makes sense as nobody can analyze what is going to happen anyway, when coaches are evaluating their teams rather than game planning or scheming to win. Getting the points on games that are anybody's guess ...or a coin flip if you will...seems logical.
After the first two weeks of the Preseason, Dogs were 17-9-0 65.38% ATS. I think we would all take that. It probably will not happen like that every year, but over time I don't think you would get hurt just exploiting the dogs for the first two weeks every year.Something to watch.
Week # 3 is the week for dress rehearsals and things change. We did well with our analysis here and I laid out the simple method for picking the Chiefs winner in two articles:
MisterMJ NFL Preseason Handicapping 101 Part 1
Week #4 Went back to a slight bias toward the dogs overall 7-6-0 53.85 % ATS overall.
Not really much to go on there, but then realize that the Week #4 Over/ Unders were 11-5-0 68.75% UNDER this season, and looking back to 2015 were 10-6-0 62.5% UNDER for NFL Preseason Week #4. Something to consider next season and again it makes some sense if defense is ahead of offense at this point of the season, as the saying goes anyway.
Preseason Game Plan and Template for Next Year
1. Consider Dogs the first two weeks of the Preseason. Playing all of them with small wagers as a volume system may capture units. Probably not every year, but over time it may have a dog bias.
2. In Week # 3 of dress rehearsals follow the plan in the two handicapping articles listed above. Basically look for QB/bench mismatches and coaches comments on long playing times for established starters vs. a team not doing that or with injury problems or a shallow bench.
3. In Week # 4 of the Preseason , as outlined above, we should take a look at playing Unders if the linesmakers continue to shade the lines too much to overs.
That should just about do it for our look at the 2016 NFL Preseason.
This is all meant to be very basic stuff. But these are building blocks for the regular season and they are building blocks for more advanced systems.
You have to start somewhere, and this was a first in a series of "Handicapping 101" methods for the "MisterMJ Way".
For the regular season I will show you how to use Statistics Tables to track various statistical elements of the NFL game to use as part of a handicapping method I call the "10/10".
We'll start getting into that in the weeks ahead.
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Sit back relax...just let me do all the work.
Sometimes we strike gold, last year we did pretty well, not golden but pretty darn good.
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Thanks, MJ
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