MisterMJ Free Picks / Sports Systems Lab

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Saturday, April 28, 2018

MisterMJ MLB 4/28...Bucking Bronco's

Note: I will be camping this weekend in the beautiful north woods of Wisconsin....and it's kind of primitive there...limited internet. So, Sunday I will most likely only post to Twitter.

Two more MLB Cycle picks qualify today...let's see if we can catch a cycle and start riding it.

It's like breaking a horse....once you get on and get into a rhythm... you can go for a while.

The hard part is figuring out how and when to jump on.

For record keeping purpose I Can NOT play "Listed Pitchers" Only....but obviously for Favorites you might get screwed sometimes if you don't.

The choice is yours....just know that I can NOT do it. I document my picks and once I enter them...I can't change them and they don't allow playing listed pitchers.

That's kind of the point of having a documented record. I use Covers "Pools" to document.

I set up my own Office Pool there...and enter the picks. This way I get a realistic line that I can't manipulate or shade...and I can't change the picks once entered. You have to keep it real...or what's the point of this?

Well other than to try to screw people...I guess that would be the point. I haven't spent 15 years doing this stuff to pretend I know how to handicap.

If anyone would like a link to my record just ask...anytime. Go to mistermj.com and there is contact info there.

Personally....I don't even trust most of the Pick Monitor sites. I've heard too many bad stories. I'll write about that one of these days.

Remember...I am tracking these...I might need to make an adjustment....I don't know if this is a finished product yet.

Be careful until we see if I can "go into cycle" and ride it.

MisterMJ MLB CYCLE System Tracking (All Wager amounts are assumed $50 for Tracking and Record keeping Purpose)

ARI at WAS 04:05 PM ARI -137

DET at BAL 07:05 PM DET +135

Record 0-1-0 -$50 for a Fifty Dollar Bettor

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Friday, April 27, 2018

MisterMJ MLB 4/27...We Are "IN CYCLE" Tonight

Thanks for your patience...there has been a lot of work behind the scenes to get this up and running.

Just bear with me as I work the bugs out and get this set up. I will also start getting this out much earlier in the day.

I am looking forward to this challenge to provide winning baseball picks the rest of this season. If this works...it can work across ALL platforms...and ALL Sports.

Fingers crossed on that one.

This is really a ground breaking change in methods for me and I"m excited to start this.

I'm adding something to my handicapping I've thought about for a long time.

Identifying when Players Emotions + Situations+ Systems come into and go out of Cycle.

We only play on teams IN CYCLE...when EVERYTHING lines up. I will constantly be searching for situations ...players...and teams IN CYCLE.

We will be Tracking Select Dogs, Faves and O/U's from a system as they come into Cycle.

Our First Cycle pick is tonight.

Seattle and Cleveland are both IN CYCLE for the Under.

Play them if you wish...or watch me track them first.

It's impossible to back test something like this and I have no history with this particular system. I wouldn't put it out unless I thought it had value but there are no guarantees.

MisterMJ MLB CYCLE System Tracking (All Wager amounts are assumed $50 for Tracking and Record keeping Purpose)

SEA at CLE 07:10 PM U 8.0

Record 0-0-0

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Thursday, April 26, 2018

MisterMJ NBA / MLB 4/26.. EMO's and Highly Functional Autistic With Statistics

First of all...I have some thoughts on the NBA Playoff game tonight.

Here is what I think...I like Boston +4.5 at Milwaukee..that is what I think. +4 Would be ok too.

This is not a "system" play and I would not recommend that you wager a lot on it. But it's not "action" either. I don't do "action".

I think it's worth playing...but keep it small.

I keep documented records for all of my system plays but I don't have any systems for the NBA Playoffs. I just "see" something that I expect to have a winning advantage against the spread for this game.

Can't prove it...so take it FWIW.

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MLB 4/26

Nothing qualifies today. And I am still getting some things set up...so not quite at full speed yet.

Here is what I plan on doing for baseball.

I'm only going to use long term systems with a history for my recommended picks to play.

But what is going to be different is that I'm also going to qualify all of the picks with my own proprietary filters. In effect...A Super System of Systems.

It will be made up of Winning systems that also pass MY Filters.

I will find them...process them..filter out the obviousand recommend the best picks to you. Only picks that are in the "sweet spot" of recent statistical and emotional performance.

Systems are great but they still often leave out recent performance and that is something that I think I can use to improve overall results of most systems.

Whether it is SDQL...historical betting systems...ect..

That is what I do...I've been handicapping based on recent statistical performance for 15 years. I've learned some valuable insights in what to look for to beat the spread.

Some things are statistical set ups....some are based on the context of the matchup....and some are based on human emotional factors.

I like the emo factors the best....you can't find them anywhere or use an SDQL database to find them. Nobody really even talks about human emotion that much.

First you have to spend 15 years looking for them... EMO Factors...and quantifying them (when you can)....and observing them.

lt's one of the missing ingredients in most handicapping...because nobody is willing to do something that hard to do. Seriously...who is going to do a 15 year experiment to improve their handicapping?

Sometimes it's good to be a highly functional autistic with statistics...I see things because I'm obsessive about them , I guess.

Just sayin....kind of kidding there...kind of not. ;-)

Never been diagnosed ...but sometimes I go...hmmmm...maybe!

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Wednesday, April 25, 2018

MisterMJ MLB 4/25....Better Stuff on The Way

Don't miss tomorrows post....I will be explaining in more detail what I intend to do for the rest of the MLB season....and beyond.

Exciting stuff for me...as I combine what I've learned building handicapping systems and filters over the last 15 years with other information now becoming available.

Last night the Select Faves split 1-1-0 for a small loss.

I'm going to wrap this up today...I'm done with the Select Dogs and Select Faves. Final Records are below.

All I wanted to do was show people that they can do some of this themselves, and I wanted to illustrate some of the basics for filtering plays ect. ..and it shows the way I think which can help you decide whether or not to follow me.

I will be doing more of this in the future playing around with systems and building filters at this blog.

Right now...I just don't have the time to keep doing these particular systems..especially doing it for free...which I don't mind, but I have to spend my time wisely.

I intend to spend my time in the future giving you Better Systems and Information.

The good news is that I"m going to start posting plays for you to follow that I hope will be of greater value. This is where I want to spend my time.

If I have a play today...which I might...I will post it on my Twitter Feed. Follow the links below.

Select Dogs Final Record

37-53-0 41.76% +$83.00 For a Fifty Dollar Bettor

Select Faves Final Record
4-2-0 66.67% +42.00 For a Fifty Dollar Bettor

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Tuesday, April 24, 2018

MisterMJ MLB Tues. 4/24 ...A Couple of Filtered Faves

Nothing qualified yesterday...so I didn't post here.

You can always check my Twitter feed for an update. https://twitter.com/mistermjdotcom

Or go to mistermj.com and check the embedded twitter feed there.

Today we have a couple more Select Faves.

These are dog plays that were filtered OUT as NO PLAY....AND then playing on those FAVES that our filters find as PLAY ON.

It sounds complicated but it's not...in a nutshell...it's bad hitting vs. good hitting and making sure we aren't going against a top starting pitcher.

It's a simple system of basic filters...and I'm trying to illustrate...sometimes simple is best...or at least...simple does sometimes work.

MLB Select Faves

8:15 PM STL -162

8:40 PM COL -148

Record 3-1-0 75.00% +$73.00 For a Fifty Dollar Bettor

Roughly speaking....it looks like the Filters have gained us approximately +4.5 Units so far...versus just playing the Select Dogs without filters.

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