NCAA Feb 28

Two picks Saturday for the home team system. I had to post them early...a little line movement would not effect the pick being made.

12-3 since Feb. 8 adjustment.

Good luck!

NCAAB

Saturday, February 28

Game	Score	Status	Pick	Amount
Eastern Illinois	-	8:30 PM ET	Tennessee St. -2.5	500
Tennessee St.	-
Boise St.	-	9:00 PM ET	Louisiana Tech -3	500
Louisiana Tech	-

NCAA Feb 27

No NBA picks qualify tonight.

I have one lean with the NCAA home system. It's experimental without much history.

Niagara -3

Record 11-3 after a 1-1 split last night.

Good luck!

NCAA Feb 26

No NBA picks tonight.

Two leans tonight in the home team NCAA system...it's experimental...keep that in mind with your wagers.

Louisiana Tech -2.5
California -4

The record is 10-2 since a Feb 8 adjustment...a small sample for sure...but I think I have something to work with here.

Good luck!

NCAAB

Thursday, February 26

Game	Score	Status	Pick	Amount
New Mexico St.	-	8:00 PM ET	Louisiana Tech -2.5	500
Louisiana Tech	-
Southern California	-	10:30 PM ET	California -4	500
California	-

NBA O/U Feb 25

One Beer Money O/U today...I still suggest playing these smaller than a computer pick. As always...do what is best for you.

Boston / Clippers Under 200.5

My number is 188...so that gives us a 13 point cushion...in theory. I've noticed this is in the sweet spot for these picks...6-13 points cushion from my number...anything more or less often suggest it's best to stay away...or respect the books number.

Most of my numbers are right on the books...I get one per day...or every other day that gives us a pick.

I don't look for unders...that's just where the value always seems to be...which I guess makes sense because we have to worry about OT and the public historically loves overs.

Good luck!

NBA


Wednesday, February 25

Game	Score	Status	Pick	Amount
Boston	-	10:30 PM ET	Under 200.5	500
L.A. Clippers	-

Beer Money O/U's

Date	WLT	Pct	Net Units	Record
02/20/09	0-1-0	0.00%	-550	Detail
02/17/09	0-1-0	0.00%	-550	Detail
02/11/09	1-0-0	100.00%	+500	Detail
02/08/09	0-1-0	0.00%	-550	Detail
02/06/09	1-0-0	100.00%	+500	Detail
02/03/09	0-1-0	0.00%	-550	Detail
02/02/09	1-0-0	100.00%	+500	Detail
01/31/09	0-1-0	0.00%	-550	Detail
01/30/09	1-0-0	100.00%	+500	Detail
01/29/09	1-0-0	100.00%	+500	Detail
01/28/09	1-0-0	100.00%	+500	Detail
01/27/09	1-0-0	100.00%	+500	Detail

7-5-0

58.33%

+750

NBA Computer Pick Feb 24

One computer pick today.

Phoenix -7

It looks like we are just about done for this NBA season. I really do not like what I see in the stats lately...I had hoped the over unders would be able to take up some slack...but I don't like the looks of them lately either.

We might just be at the limit of what this system can do this season...if the value is gone...it's gone. That doesn't mean there isn't value...it's just not there the way I look for it.

The system is now on a very very short leash. We better see some good results very soon...or we are done for the year.

Baseball is coming soon enough...and that should be a long haul.

Good luck tonight...especially after that historic bad beat with the statfox pick last night.

Tuesday, February 24

Game	Score	Status	Pick	Amount
Charlotte	-	9:00 PM ET	Phoenix -7	500
Phoenix	-

58-32-1

64.44%

+11400

+22.8 units

NBA Feb 23

No plays today with my systems.

I did find an angle on New Jersey Under 192. It is well worth a small play in my opinion.

I will not count this in my record...I'm just passing along the best information I can find for tonight's games.

Statfox deserves the credit for this angle...more info here:

http://www.statfox.com/statfoxnews/news~articleid~4816~h~Solid-NBA-Totals-System-for-Monday.htm

NCAA lean Feb 21

No picks today.

I think the thing to do is let the stats reset. I don't like the results since the All Star game. It's not time to panic however...lets just take a little break...everything is fine.

I need teams to settle back into patterns and form, and the All Star break seems to screw that up.

I'll probably make this a permanent change to the system.

Continuous improvement will keep building the system.

Cya in a few days.

I do have a lean in NCAA Basketball for a small play.

7:00 PM ET Eastern Kentucky -2

Good luck!

NBA O/U Feb 20

One O/U tonight...this line is all over the place so don't worry if your line is off a little.

If we are right about this one...there is a lot of cushion...if we're wrong I doubt 1 point makes a difference...but it is coming down as I post...so it doesn't hurt to get on it right away.

Phoenix Under 231.5
Good luck!

NBA

Friday, February 20

Game	Score	Status	Pick	Amount
Oklahoma City	-	9:00 PM ET	Under 231.5	500
Phoenix	-

Post All Star Game Recap...

Post All Star Game Recap...

Let's take a look at this years record to date.

Computer Picks(Includes POD's...all POD's are computer picks first)

58-32-1

64.44%

+11400

+22.8 units

Beer Money O/U's (the record is actually better...but experimental picks were not counted until we saw some success)

7-4-0

63.64%

+1300

+2.6 units

==============================
Overall combined 08-09 season record
65-36-1 64.4% +25.4 units

Things are slowing down with the computer picks...people complained about it last year as well. That's just the way it is...lines tighten up and you get less value as the season goes along.

I can see it in the stats that I look at every day...you get a feel for it...the best part of the season is really the early and middle season. We try to scoop out the best part as best we can...but it slowly starts fading away in late January to nearly nothing by late Feb.

That is one reason the Over Unders are important. I don't see any reason they should decay the same way...I'm hoping they can fill in the gap and give us picks right up to the playoffs.

It's still too early to know if the Over Unders will be a successful system...so far it looks good with a small sample...but what I haven't mentioned is that I'm very often right on the number...that makes me very optimistic.

Next season ...we will immediately have NBA picks based on the pre-season numbers that I experimented with this year...we won't have to wait , by using the pre-season stats.

After the first couple of weeks...we will have enough stats for the regular computer picks as usual, the middle of November...and hopefully the over unders can help take up the slack until the playoffs.

It's been a lot of work always experimenting and trying to improve the system...I'm looking forward to just running the whole thing next year as a "completed" system without all the extra work. I would like to sit back and enjoy it more...it really feels like work sometimes.

Next year will be interesting...if we can repeat this years success from start to finish...and have success 3 seasons in a row...that would be quite an accomplishment.

Good luck to us

NBA Computer Pick Tues Feb 17

One computer pick today...it does not qualify as a POD.

Orlando -8.5

There is also one O/U pick in the same game. Charlotte / Orlando Under 188.5

Good luck!

NBA Computer Pick Tuesday, February 17

Game	Score	Status	Pick	Amount
Charlotte	-	7:00 PM ET	Orlando -8.5	500
Orlando	-

58-31-1

65.17%

+11950

View

+23.9 units

Tuesday, February 17

Game	Score	Status	Pick	Amount
Charlotte	-	7:00 PM ET	Under 188.5	500
Orlando	-

7-3-0

70.00%

+1850

View

+3.7 units

NBA O/U Wed Feb 11

One O/U tonight...nothing else qualifies.

Orlando Under 209.5

NBA Wednesday, February 11

Game	Score	Status	Pick	Amount
Denver	-	7:00 PM ET	Under 209.5	500
Orlando	-

6-3-0

66.67%

+1350

Small NBA Play Monday Feb 9

There are no regular system plays today.

I have a small lean on Houston / Milwaukee Over 195

Play it small...or wait for a more proven system pick.

Good luck. MJ

NBA O/U Sunday Feb 8

---

One under today...NY/Port Under 209.5
Nothing else qualifies.

Good luck!


NBA

Sunday, February 8

Game	Score	Status	Pick	Amount
New York	-	6:00 PM ET	Under 209.5	500
Portland	-

6-2-0

75.00%

+1900

*** Cancel Atlanta Hawks***

A late injury report says Bibby is out for the Hawks.

With Joe Johnson also questionable...I recommend canceling this wager.

I bought back the Clippers to +7.5 to cancel out the Hawks wager...you will still lose some juice.

My apologies but the information was released very late.

Lets wait for a better pick.

NBA Computer Pick Sat. Feb 7

One NBA computer pick today...it does not qualify as a POD. No O/U's qualify.
Atlanta -7.5

Good luck!


Saturday, February 7

Game	Score	Status	Pick	Amount
L.A. Clippers	-	7:00 PM ET	Atlanta -7.5	500
Atlanta	-

Computer Picks Record

58-31-1

65.1%

+$11950

+23.9 units

NBA O/U Friday Feb 6

One Beer Money O/U today. No other picks qualify.

Portland / OK Under 199

Good luck!

I still recommend wagering less on these than the computer picks. Adjust for your own personal risk level. The record is good...but the sample size is very very small.

For record keeping purposes...they are wagered here at 1 unit.

NBA


Friday, February 6

Game	Score	Status	Pick	Amount
Portland	-	8:00 PM ET	Under 199	500
Oklahoma City	-

5-2-0

71.43%

+$1400

NBA Computer Picks Wed Feb 4

Two computer picks today...they do not qualify as POD's

Orlando -13 and Atlanta +2.5

Good luck!

This system is intended to be flat bet with 1 unit wagers and the records are kept that way.

Use sound money management for your personal unit size.

Doing anything else changes the system, and takes on extra risk.

Wednesday, February 4

Game	Score	Status	Pick	Amount
L.A. Clippers	-	7:00 PM ET	Orlando -13	500
Orlando	-
Atlanta	-	8:00 PM ET	Atlanta +2.5	500
Minnesota	-

56-31-1

64.3%

+$10950

NBA O/U Tuesday Feb 3

One Over/Under today. No other picks qualify.

Good luck!

NBA Tuesday, February 3

Game	Score	Status	Pick	Amount
Boston	-	7:00 PM ET	Under 191.5	500
Philadelphia	-

5-1-0

83.33%

+$1950

NBA O/U Monday Feb 2

One beer money O/U today. Nothing else qualifies.
Good luck!

NBA

Monday, February 2

Game	Score	Status	Pick	Amount
Dallas	-	7:00 PM ET	Under 208	500
Orlando	-

4-1-0

80.00%

+$1450

SuperBowl Prop Feb 1

No NBA Picks today.

I can't resist one SuperBowl wager for the home crowd here.

I do not have an opinion on the game...I just don't.

But here is one prop that keeps jumping out at me.

Kurt Warner Under 260 1/2 yards -110 (Betjam)

Pittsburgh has only given up more passing yards once this year.

I'll take that bet based on the history alone.

Decide for yourself. Good luck!

Pittsburgh Steelers Game Logs for 2008
http://www.statfox.com/nfl/gamelog~t...pittsburgh.htm