MisterMJ Free Picks / Sports Systems Lab

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Friday, April 13, 2018

MisterMJ MLB Fri. 4/13 ...Things Nobody Talks About

The MLB Early Season Dogs are on a nice five day run.

Why are you paying for picks again?

Anyone can do this... and doing it yourself somehow makes it all more enjoyable even if it is not your idea.

Nobody talks about this.

Last Five Days...Assuming $50 Dollar Wagers for Tracking
04/12/2018 2-2-0 50.00% +71.00
04/11/2018 3-3-0 50.00% +71.50
04/10/2018 3-3-0 50.00% +59.50
04/09/2018 2-2-0 50.00% +48.50
04/08/2018 5-3-0 62.50% +$230.00

Today's picks are included just below.

Today's MLB Select Dog Trackers
Friday 4/13

06:40 PM CIN +135

07:05 PM COL +159

07:10 PM DET +161

08:15 PM KC +136

Overall Record 31-34-0 47.69% +$590.00 For a Fifty Dollar Bettor

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Thursday, April 12, 2018

MisterMJ MLB Thur. 4/12....Greed Kills

Today's MLB Select Dogs and records are included at the bottom of this post.

Yesterday was the fourth day in a row that the MLB Select Dogs had a profit.

Once again...let me explain what we are doing here and why.

All that we are doing is playing any and all MLB dogs between +128 and +180 in the beginning of the season. The reason we "Select" them between +128 to +180 is because that is arguably the "sweet spot" with the best value long term.

The reason they show long term value is "probably" because the public perceives the wrong value based on last season or historical results for teams and players.

We don't actually KNOW anything yet...until the games are played for a while....then the value will probably start to come more into line with actual performance this season....versus what people assume based on PAST history.

Anybody can do this...it's probably one of the best things to watch each April in MLB. They won't always hit like this...so enjoy it now while it lasts and don't go crazy. It could stop and reverse any day...or it might show value through the rest of April if you play it smart and don't get greedy.

Greed kills. It separates the men from the boys in gambling.

The number one sign that you are a Problem Gambler?

#1 You constantly change the amount of your wagers based on emotions. Specifically....you get angry at a loss and try to make it up betting more the next time. If you are searching for emotional highs....you are doing it wrong and are a slave to your emotions. You will NEVER win that way.

It's far better to train yourself to appreciate the warm glow of steady winning over time...with a plan.

Don't be chasing all over the place looking for the next emotional high that never lasts.

Most of this business is complete bullshit. I am trying to show you how it can be done....some of it yourself...for better long term results and enjoyment.

MJ
www.mistermj.com

Thur. 4/12
Today's MLB Select Early Season Dog Tracking Picks

02:20 PM PIT +177

06:10 PM DET +180

07:05 PM COL +165

08:10 PM CHW +162

Overall Record 29-32-0 47.54% +$519.00

Yesterday's Results 3-3-0 50.00% +$71.50... For a Fifty Dollar Bettor

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Wednesday, April 11, 2018

MisterMJ MLB 4/11...And the Size of My Unit. Size Matters

Today's MLB Records and System Tracking picks are included below. But first a small rant about "Unit" size.

This simple system for Early Season MLB Dogs is now up nearly 9 units. 1 unit = $50 for record keeping.

I think people get very confused and manipulated by people when it comes to "UNITS".

What is a Unit? Well...that is part of the problem. They can be anything we want them to be.

This is how I look at it.

To me...one unit should be a standard size bet that is comparable to what most people would use or at least understand. Thus....I use $50 = 1 unit. It's similar in value to how most people wager.

Maybe larger...maybe smaller but completely understandable to all of us. We have a good feel for what fifty bucks represents...and how it feels to win fifty...or lose fifty.

The reason people manipulate unit amounts is usually to give the impression that they are winning more.

For instance....if I put the value of a unit at $10 for this system but bet 5 units on each pick... it would be up nearly 90 units right now instead of 9 units. But the amount of profit would be exactly the same. It just sounds better to say 90 units.

Personally...I always think it is a red flag to watch for when somebody is bragging about huge unit amounts.

Of course then we can also talk about Star Systems or betting different amounts on different bets which "might" be a reason to have smaller value "Units" for ease of betting.

That's all fine... but...you Must have a good idea of the expected probability to do that. In my opinion...that is something hardly anyone is very good at...and in general... for most, it would end up being bad money management.

Yesterday's Results 3-3-0 50.00% +$59.50 For a Fifty Dollar Bettor

4/11
Today's MLB Early Season Dog Tracking Picks

01:10 PM MIN +131
01:15 PM MIL +145
03:10 PM SD +140
07:10 PM MIA +132
08:05 PM PIT +169
10:10 PM OAK +167

Overall Record 26-29-0 47.27% +$447.50 For a Fifty Dollar Bettor

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