Friday, August 22, 2014

MisterMJ NFL Free Pick Aug.22 8:00 PM ET on CBS

I'm not a huge fan of wagering on NFL Preseason football but I do think that you can find certain spots that are worth an educated guess or two. I'd advise being careful and treating it as a small entertainment wager to get geared up for the regular season, if you decide to wager.

I like Green Bay -7 tonight at home vs. the Oakland Raiders.

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I'm a Green Bay fan and I can tell you that I've read nearly every single practice report, news conference and tweet from Packers beat reporters and for tonight's game I think that helps.(often I think it hurts most people or we would all be great cappers of our home teams right? Usually this is not the case...too much bias perhaps)

1. The Packers are definitely using this game as their regular season dress rehearsal. They open the season with the NFL's first regular season game...a Thursday night game at Seattle. They will not play starters next week because of that. More emphasis on tonight, and all preseason the emphasis is on scoring and doing it bam bam bam down the field fast, not giving the defense a chance to substitute at all. If you stack the line they call a pass at the line of scrimmage...if you play back they hammer you with Eddy Lacy. More than ever they are attacking on offense....faster faster faster they want to run more plays per game avg compared to the past...and they will. They seem 
obsessed about it really, it's crazy. Many teams are starting to do this, but the Packers are extremely well coached and efficient about the way they are doing it this season.

2, The Packers are still installing a new quicker tempo hurry up offense which overwhelmed a pretty good Rams defense last week. The Raiders have been sliced and diced on defense and Green Bay has good reason to make sure the offense overwhelms this team as well. It's been an extreme point of emphasis...I'm telling you the Packers should be in the mood to put up points tonight. Keep this in mind all season, barring injury this team is shaping up as an absolute offensive juggernaut.
 WR 3 Boykin is worth a late round gamble in fantasy by the way. A sleeper that could end up scoring 6-8 TD's this year in my opinion.

3. Even after they bench Aaron Rodgers and the starters the Packers have two capable QB's that are truly locked in a battle for probably one spot. Flynn and Tolzien will still have Green Bays very deep skill positons to play with (6 deep or more qith quality WR's and 2nd and 3rd RB's are talented as well... and the emphasis will still be to keep the foot on the gas in my opinion.

4. GB's defense is still a question mark as they play vanillla in preseason and it's really hard to guage how good they are. That is a risk but I don't think the Raiders are deep enough or good enough to matter. I could be wrong though if GB still has a soft pass defense.

5. Lastly, it's a preseason game...who knows what could happen? It's a risk. I could be right about all of the above but some poor decisions by back up players could still give the Raiders a way to win or back door cover in the 4th quarter.

I still think it's well worth the risk on this one. Green Bay covers the -7. Its nationally covered on CBS tonight. One more reason for the better teams players to show off a little bit, can't hurt.

 Maybe another pick this weekend yet, not sure for Sat and Sunday games.

Good luck!

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