Sunday, September 9, 2012

MisterMJ NFL Info for Sunday Sept 9 4:25 ET

I have some interesting NFL Information to share below for the Carolina / Tampa Bay game at 4:25 ET.

After the first two weeks of the College Football season we are 4-2-0  66.67% winners against the spread and we have our first NFL pick on Monday night. 

Early Season NCAAF
NCAAFToledo34Wyoming -2.5500LOSS-550
NCAAFFlorida20Florida -1500WON+500
Texas A&M17
NCAAFAir Force25Air Force +21.5500WON+500

NCAAFSouthern Mississippi20Nebraska -19.5500WON+500
NCAAFOhio24Ohio +6.5500WON+500
Penn State14
NCAAFWestern Michigan7Western Michigan +10500LOSS-550
4-2-0 66.67% +$900
Only $29.99 for the All Inclusive NFL / NCAAF package including College Bowl games. Guaranteed at mistermj.com4-2-0 66.67% +$900

MisterMJ Documented 2011 NFL/NCAAF  Records:

2011 NCAAF System Record 24-14-0 63.16% ATS
2011 NFL Computer Picks 15-8-1 65.22% +$1640
2011 NFL 10/10 System 12-7-0 63.16% $2150
EMO NFL System  (2007-2011 Record 82-62, 56.94% ATS)
2011 EMO's 12-14-2 46.15% -$1700

This is NOT my pick....I am just sharing something that I have found. According to this article this game would be the best Under today. Decide for yourself. I did not check his numbers but I believe them to be true.

 It's a system with a nice recent record but keep in mind it's not an automatic winner and the system might be ready to regress toward the mean. It looks like an interesting game to consider today but it is not my pick and will not count on my record. 

4:25 ET Carolina at Tampa Bay Under 45.5
System 1 - Poor NFL Teams and Totals in Opening Week
 teams that lost nine or more games last year are playing their first game home to a total of greater than 44, the under is 18-6 for 75% winners.
If we just measure our original situation, of losing nine or more last year and playing at home in week 1, and look at home favorites versus home dogs we see another avenue:
Home Favorite: Under is 40-33 (54.8%)
Home Underdog: Under is 43-25-2 (63.2%)
As you can see home dogs have performed extremely well in this situation. So there you have something to look for in NFL week 1 games, as there has been a huge totals bias on these losing teams from a year ago.

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