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MisterMJ NFL Preseason Handicapping 101 teaching the
"MisterMJ Way" Part 2 of 2
Everything points to the Chiefs at the Bears as the Week # 3 NFL Preseason game to look at this week.
And after looking at this game in more detail, I am recommending an NFL Preseason wager on the Chiefs -1( it's good up to -3 in my opinion if the line slips a little bit)
In general here was my method. It's not so much a formula but teaching one way to look at Preseason match ups.
1. First I googled: "nfl preseason records" and the third link down from the top gave me this link:
NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records
2. Open that link and look at the tables provided. You will see some extensive information and history of NFL coaching Preseason records and a breakdown by each week of the Preseason. Notice also it is NOT against the spread but just Wins/Loss. That's ok...it still gives us a good idea which coaches seem to value week # 3 more than others.
3.In the bottom table "Coaches Records by Week" in Week # 3 several coaches records stand out best. Andy Reid's is one of those which stands at 11-6 in week # 3. That's 17 years of history and suggests that Andy takes his week # 3 tune up seriously.
4. John Fox is also 8-6 in week # 3 which isn't too bad but there are other factors explained below that tilts this match up in the Chiefs favor..."maybe"...we can never be too sure. This is preseason. We are taking educated guesses here. Be careful. Don't wager too much, have fun with it and get ready for the regular season.
Now let's look at some coaches comments and see if we can seal the deal on taking the Chiefs.
Andy Reid said that the number one’s on offense and defense may play into the third quarter during what is normally the dress rehearsal game for the upcoming season.
There we go...that is what I'm looking for. We are going to get plenty of action from the starters on the Chiefs. The Chiefs are pretty deep in some areas so even with back up QB Nick Foles a veteran with many starts,they are in pretty good hands. This is about as good an outlook that we can get. Nothing is for sure but this is what we want.
Now let's look at the Bears...and it's ugly. Decimated by injuries already it's going to be a hodge podge of camp bodies filling slots.
Oh and they have a "bug" going around too. Doesn't get much better than this.
Other Bears rookies are dealing with illnesses. Cornerback Deiondre’ Hall left practice early Tuesday after vomiting on the field. Receiver Kieren Duncan and linebacker Jarrett Grace sat out.
“A little bit of a bug going around,” Fox said.
Here is another comment...suggesting the Bears will be playing their scrubs:
with Saturday's dress rehearsal for the regular season approaching in the third preseason game against Kansas City, the Bears' injury situation only seems to get worse by the day.
"We've got plenty of bodies — we're at 90 players," coach John Fox said Sunday. "At this point you've got plenty of guys out here.
"It gives us a chance to look at some other guys and give them an opportunity to catch our eye."http://www.galesburg.com/sports/20160822/chicago-bears-injury-list-growing
There you go...plenty of good reasons to take the Chiefs in my opinion.
Saturday August 27 1:00 PM ET KC Chiefs @ Chicago Bears.
Take the Chiefs -1(and up to -3)
Good luck to us.